"Lukashenko Is In Terrible Shape"

The regime is running out of time.

Analyst Sergey Chaly discussed about the disappointing results of the past six years for Lukashenko, noted “Solidarnast”.

“We are now on a path of inevitable decline and collapse,” declared Sergei Chaly. “It’s an irreversible path, where all the decisions made in 2020 continue to take effect.”

And there’s little chance of turning away from this inevitable path. In other words, Lukashenko continues to dig the hole he’s buried himself in. It’s getting deeper and narrower, while he’s getting fatter. It’s impossible to get out backward, and impossible to turn around—all that’s left is to keep digging.

The war, of course, has drastically changed the situation, but even here it’s clear that Lukashenko is a hostage to the decisions made in 2020.

Propagandists are now forced to explain the military threat, but they’re doing it in a unique way: “Look how great Lukashenko is—he practically saved us from war,” they say.

What war? The war that might have happened if we hadn’t stood our ground back then. Otherwise, there would have been a Western strike, an intervention, an occupation.

In other words, the real war—the one you’re participating in—is being pushed aside, and a fictional one is taking its place. And then comes a very interesting conclusion: this threat isn’t going anywhere; it will haunt us for another five years.

This war became possible, and I’m convinced that Lukashenko welcomed it and egged Putin on, hoping to gain some sort of benefit for himself. And now, even in this war, the “track effect” is at work again.

Russia is losing its second campaign—in fact, its second war: it lost the blitzkrieg, and now it is losing a war of attrition. And Belarus is losing along with Russia.

Lukashenko himself lives in the moment—which wasn’t the case six years ago—and realizes that his time horizon is very short, that he won’t have time to accomplish anything long-term.

Just look at the meeting dedicated to some “academy of future sciences” or whatever it is—they’re trying to come up with something for Kolya.

I’m sure this is a continuation of his personalized track—he had “his own school” and “his own department” at the university. And so, they’ve created this “academy of sciences” just for him.

At the same time, Lukashenko constantly says that long-term ideas are unnecessary—what good is it to me if you someday do something I won’t live to see?

And when your time horizon shrinks, you start entering the “just work a miracle for me” stage. All of his “fruitful ideas” are accompanied by the phrase: “If we had this, we wouldn’t have to do anything else.”.

It’s really some kind of attempt to find a magic solution, after which—poof—all our problems are solved.

And this is a truly important factor—the feeling that there’s not much time left. But this feeling is compounded by another phenomenon.

All the projects Lukashenko has undertaken have ended ingloriously in spectacular failure. All of them, including those closest to his heart, which were supposed to be showcase projects.

Okay, we can’t make the whole country work well, but at least in “Great Alexandria,” the historical homeland of the “Kupalovskoye” agricultural holding, it was supposed to demonstrate how wonderfully huge, vertically integrated structures operate under unified state management. However, even there, it all ended in failure.

Imagine the psychological state of a person who has been in power for over 30 years, and now a time has come when you have less and less time, you realize that you’re physically limited in what you can do, and everything is falling apart. It’s a monstrous state of affairs.

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