ISW: Putin Is Concerned About Russians' Reaction To His Plan

The Kremlin denies any plans for a mobilization.

The Kremlin continues to deny plans to carry out a mobilization in Russia following the State Duma elections, which will take place on September 18–20, likely to prevent Russians from fleeing abroad en masse. This is stated in a September 18 report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on September 18.

Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov reiterated on Friday that Russian authorities do not plan to carry out a mobilization after the elections. Other Russian officials have previously made similar statements, likely in an effort to reassure the public and avoid social unrest or mass emigration similar to what occurred in 2022.

Bloomberg reported that representatives of the Russian government are attempting to open accounts in foreign banks and transfer assets abroad, as well as urging their relatives to leave Russia due to fears of an impending mobilization.

The ISW, for its part, notes that the Kremlin will be forced to carry out some form of compulsory mobilization of reservists to sustain the war in Ukraine in the medium and long term. After all, the aggressor country’s current losses exceed its monthly recruitment rates, and the Russian military is currently failing to achieve its operational and strategic objectives on the front lines.

Russia’s denial of mobilization plans does not mean that Moscow will not announce it, since dictator Vladimir Putin shows no desire to agree to a ceasefire or compromise with Ukraine, writes the ISW. On the contrary, these statements are more likely indicative of Putin’s concern about the possible reaction of Russian society to forced mobilization, the analysis notes.

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