Lukashenko Will Close The Skies

Was it even worth it?

On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a statement that sparked a storm of outrage in Russia. Volodymyr Zelenskyy threatened to close the skies over Russia, just as they were closed four and a half years ago over Ukraine.

Warning: The Sky Is Closing

“Today we want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, and everyone who still uses key Russian airports: Russian airspace is becoming completely dangerous. Civil aviation has no place among drones,” Zelenskyy said

Vladimir Putin called the threat to close the skies over Russia an act of state terrorism. Complaints began to surface on Russian social media over the threat to the “velvet season” in Turkey. Rosaviatsiya reassured everyone, stating that Zelenskyy’s statement has no legal force. But just in case, it accused Zelenskyy of violating the international convention on civil aviation. As soon as things start to get heated, Russia always brings up international conventions. Meanwhile, Dmitry Medvedev and Russian military correspondents called for a response in the form of strikes on decision-making centers.

At the same time, no one really doubted that Ukraine is capable of closing the airspace at least over the European part of Russia. Because to close it, you don’t need to bomb airports. It’s enough for Ukrainian combat drones to fly near these airports from time to time.

“The sky over Russia is now for drones. Not for civilian aviation,” Zelenskyy said.

So there are no technical limitations. But unlike Putin and the Russian generals, President Zelenskyy has certain moral constraints. He must close the airspace in such a way that no civilian aircraft is harmed. And it is only because of these moral constraints that planes in Russia are still flying. Because the plan to paralyze Russian airports emerged three months ago. And only now can Ukraine begin to implement it.

I don’t want to and I won’t fly

If this threat to airports becomes a regular occurrence, foreign airlines will eventually stop flying to Russia on their own. Aeroflot, of course, will remain. Because Russia’s Aeroflot has nowhere to go but the Russian sky.

Just as, in fact, Belavia has nowhere to go. The north, south, and west were closed to Belarusian aircraft back in 2021, when Lukashenko decided to play pirate and boarded a plane carrying blogger Roman Protasevich.

Since then, Russia has remained the only available air route. Every year, 1.5 to 2 million Belarusians fly to or through Russia. Between 300,000 and 500,000 use Russia as a transit country.

It’s not exactly a comfortable route. Flight delays and the need to take a massive detour due to drone attacks on such routes have become commonplace. Just a week ago, a flight from Minsk to Kutaisi had to fly through Kazakhstan and refuel. Instead of four hours, the flight took eight. But if Ukraine carries out its threat, even these flights will be nothing more than a nostalgic memory.

And the most disappointing thing is that things were just starting to get back on track for Belavia. The Americans lifted the restrictions, and passenger traffic began to grow for the first time compared to pre-sanction levels. The company launched or resumed 15 new flights and now operates 18 flights to various cities in Russia.

So, we can definitely forget about flights to Russia. In principle, the option for transit flights will remain. After all, airplanes do fly much higher than drones. So, as long as you don’t fly into Russian airports, there doesn’t seem to be a direct threat.

Air defense to boot

But aside from Ukrainian drones, there’s also Russian air defense. Let me remind you briefly that an Azerbaijani plane over Grozny in 2024 was shot down by a Russian missile. At the time, the secretary of Chechnya’s Security Council received a state award for successfully repelling the enemy attack. The Russian authorities denied their guilt for a long time, but in the end were forced to admit it. And Putin even went so far as to pretend to apologize.

So flying over a country engulfed in full-scale war isn’t, in principle, a very wise idea. Although I’m afraid that won’t stop the Belarusian authorities. It took a drone striking a passenger bus for the Belarusian Foreign Ministry to issue recommendations warning against traveling along the frontline zone. Characteristically, people continue to travel there anyway. Belarusian travel agencies have been advertising tours to Crimea and continue to do so.

So Lukashenko’s five-year-old operation to force Europe into peace has already cost Belarus dearly. And it may end up costing even more. So one has to ask: was it even worth it? Trading the whole sky for a single blogger.

Alexey Mazartov, “Belarusians and the Market”

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