Anti-War Mutiny Is At Hand In Russia, Large Upheavals Are Coming

Ukrainians make up a significant part of the Primorye population.

The Russian dictator is not able to admit his mistake and stop the war against Ukraine, political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky is convinced.

In an interview with Radio NV, he explained how the anti-war movement was born in Russia.

— I would like to start with the internal resistance in Russia, perhaps some kind of anti-war movement. The communists of Primorye appeared suddenly. On May 27, member of the Communist Party faction Leonid Vasyukevich, on behalf of four colleagues, called on Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine. They were expelled from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF). Does this mean that something anti-war is at hand of Russia's political elites? Is this a single case?

— I think it has been since the beginning of the war. There are strong developments now, when, according to unofficial data, the Kremlin is trying to assure the restoration of the occupied territories with regional budgets, respectively, with the help of regional elites, transferring responsibility for what is happening to them, among other things.

We must understand that, after all, the Far East is a rather special region for a number of reasons, especially in the context of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Firstly, ethnic Ukrainians constitute a significant part of the population in both Primorye and Khabarovsk territories. This must be kept in mind.

One more thing is that these are eternally rebellious regions that have traditionally [expressed dissatisfaction] against Moscow. And even if it was about the fact that local gangsters rebelled there, in any case, compared to the rest of Russia, this is largely a territory of freedom, albeit partially criminal. Elections in these regions traditionally give Putin and the ruling party a lower result than the national average.

We know the level of electoral fraud in Russia. However, in 2018, it was not possible to convincingly steal the election of the Primorye governor. They had to cancel their results and call new elections in order to prevent exactly the candidate from the local communist party from winning these elections.

The local communists are obviously a rather disorganized force. There are many among them who focus on local regional business, which in turn is tied to international trade, and, accordingly, are interested in stopping the war as soon as possible.

Let's remember that Alexei Navalny, a well-known Russian oppositionist, actively travelled precisely to the regions of Siberia and the Far East, where he found much more supporters than even in central Russia.

There are indicators for this to happen there. Also, there are indicators for such actions to be repeated in Russia. By the way, these are not the first deputies who made such statements. Previously, there were isolated cases, and more often municipal, rather than deputies of district assemblies, were involved.

— Do these "territories of freedom" have the political will? Maybe the Сenter is already used to suppressing any such political demarches?

— The Center has some tools. Of course, he suppresses in the usual ways.

We can recall the protests in Khabarovsk, the resignation of the governor, who was detained, who was also elected in 2018 contrary to the position of the Kremlin, but with the support of regional elites.

Suppression is not enough. The point is that the dissatisfaction of the regional elites does not disappear.

If someone was given a signal that it is possible to speak in this way ... But, unfortunately, I do not believe that it was a cry from the soul of these people. They obviously relied on someone's support in the region. They discussed the demarche with someone first. This means that these deputies were expelled from the faction, some kind of informal sanctions will probably be applied to them by the Russian authorities, but protests of this kind will continue and intensify. Because everyone understands that this is pressure on Moscow, on the Kremlin.

Regional elites want the Kremlin to make it hear them. The Kremlin will not be able to squeeze all the resources from the regions forever. But it continues, as before, it does not listen to anyone.

Earlier such problems were "filled" with money. Now all experts say that Putin has enough funds to continue the war for another year or two. But this is the case when the situation develops in such a way. It turns out that if the regional elites stop subsidizing the Kremlin because they don’t get anything in return, then it can no longer “fill” them with money in case of discontent because the money goes to war. It is a completely different situation.

Then, not parades of sovereignties, but mutinies are already possible, similar to those that were in the early 1990s in the Russian Federation when many regions talked about autonomy and about separation. Perhaps, in this way they simply tried to get additional money from Moscow, but the very fact of the destabilization of the situation was obvious. It is the same now.

— Many experts say that during these 100 days, conditional two parties were formed in the Russian Federation: the "war party" and the "peace party". Representatives of the power bloc are referred to as the “war party”. The peace party mostly belongs to representatives of big business and oligarchs, who have suffered the most. Can we say that they really exist? Which of these parties has more arguments?

— I would slightly correct this division. I agree that two main directions are taking shape, but I would not call either [of them] a peace party.

Unfortunately, there is no peace party among the Russian elite. There is a party for the maximum reduction of the harm from the war and of a possible peace deal to restructure the economy and there are politicians who see that Russia is already struggling to bear this war. And the sanctions have not really begun to operate yet, and the worst will be at the end of the year.

This includes economists, the so-called systemic liberals. It is clear that they are not and never have been liberals, but that is how they are called in Russia. The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, and the economic bloc of the government are there. The political bloc of the government and the presidential administration are also mostly there. A significant part of the military, who opposed the war at the very beginning, believed that this was an adventure and that the Russian army was not ready.

Again, they cannot be called friends of Ukraine, these are not people who oppose the war in principle, these are people who oppose the unprepared war that Vladimir Putin started.

On the other hand, [there are] security forces: a part of the military; but rather the political leadership of the army, like [the Minister of Defence] Sergei Shoigu and those who own unofficial armed units on the territory of Russia, for example, Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin. But in fact there are many more of them. They are taking their chance and receiving large funding now. They and some businessmen are covering remaining foreign business as foreign companies leave: the raiders.

Special services are also there. Those special services that failed to prepare for this war, who are now ready to shift the blame to anyone, but most importantly, who are not ready and do not know how to admit their mistakes. They are encouraging Putin (he, actually, wants) to continue this war.

Obviously, the conditional peace party has more arguments and resources - those who advocate at least freezing the war (like what happened in 2014), albeit without making peace, without exchanging some territories, without withdrawing troops. But personally, Vladimir Putin, judging by what he does and says, is more of the war party. He is not ready and unable to admit his mistakes.

— What is your explanation for this? Social anthropologist Alexandra Arkhipova said that there are now more people who support this so-called special operation, because they are afraid to admit that thousands of people are being killed with their permission. Why are there no opponents of the war among the so-called political elites?

— I think Alexandra is a little mistaken in this case, there is a very clear trend towards an increase of the war opposition.

The first spike was associated with a very simple thing - the hope of a quick victory. The same with the Russian leadership. Vladimir Putin consulted almost no one before starting this war, although, of course, many guessed. But when it started in this way, it scared everyone.

Everyone was expecting a quick, pinpoint indeed “special operation”, which, no matter what, would end within a few weeks. Now we see that this is a protracted military conflict that Putin is ready to wage for months. On the one hand, these people have a desire to end the conflict as soon as possible, on the other hand, they have no moral and political view. The Russian elite does not understand very simple things like killing is bad.

This is the result of long, many years of purges of the state apparatus, which were gradually carried out by Vladimir Putin with the support of the special services. The last large-scale purge was in Russia around the fall of 2019, after fairly large-scale military protests in Moscow, if we do not count the protests in support of Alexei Navalny. Then they purged from the state apparatus everyone who had doubts, and who spoke at least just for trying to talk to the protesters. Current personnel were formed after the end of the purge.

At the same time, we see that even this situation does not satisfy Putin. Apparently now his assistant, the former governor of the Yaroslavl [region], [Dmitry] Mironov, has been appointed head of the new personnel commission. Apparently, we are talking about a new big purge, a purge of everyone who doubted the need to start this “military operation”, this aggression against Ukraine.