Stepan Grigoryan: Lukashenka's Statement About CSTO Countries Is No Accident
25- 13.02.2023, 14:16
- 76,676
Every day Russia becomes more and more marginalized.
Lukashenka said that the countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will soon have to determine their position in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Is there a possibility that the countries of the bloc will somehow support Russia, or is it just Lukashenka wishful thinking?
The Charter97.org website asked Stepan Grigoryan, one of the leaders of the democratic movement in Armenia in the 1990s, a former deputy of the Supreme Council of the republic and ex-Ambassador of Armenia to Russia, the following question:
— I'll start with the fact that this statement by Lukashenka is not an accident. I have no doubt that he was asked to say this by the Kremlin. After all, how does that concern Lukashenka? What's his business? It is clear that it comes from Moscow.
This is a way of putting pressure on other CSTO countries — Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. So that they decide on the war in Ukraine. After all, every day Russia is becoming more isolated, more marginalized.
I will give a simple example. Few people paid attention to this, but see with whom Sergei Lavrov met recently (Russian Foreign Minister — edit.) Do you know such a country as South Sudan?
— Yes.
— So, Lavrov met with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of South Sudan. My point is that Russia is falling into increasingly rigid isolation because of the war in Ukraine. It is clear that it needs some sexy stories.
They demonstrate that there is a country that says: let's “objectively” look at the situation. In Europe, there were a couple of countries that used to speak like this, but they no longer do so. Now the Russian Federation needs the CSTO countries not to play, but to decide with whom they are.
— Why did Lukashenka make such a statement just now?
— He had expressed similar thoughts before, but now he spoke more specifically. I emphasize that this is due to the fact that Russia is increasingly isolated from the world.
— If Russia and the Lukashenka regime insist on some kind of support, how might the countries of the bloc react?
— Honestly, I can tell you that I can’t answer for Tajikistan. However, it seems to me that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia are unlikely to officially support this war. Despite the fact that in these countries the situation is difficult. I do not believe though that the leaderships of Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will try to justify Russia's actions in Ukraine. I practically rule it out.
The pressure will be great, but none of these three countries will go for it. Moreover, we remember the statement of the President of Kazakhstan at the forum in Vladivostok that quasi-entities such as “LPR”, “DPR” would not be recognized.
Last November, at the CSTO summit in Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan blocked a common resolution and a resolution on Armenia. It is very serious. Can you imagine, at the annual CSTO summit, where a general resolution on the activities of the organization and a separate one on Armenia should be adopted, a country emerges that is blocking both of these resolutions.
Given all this, I do not believe that it will be possible to push so hard that these countries abandon their neutral position regarding the war in Ukraine in favor of Russia.
