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Volodymyr Fesenko: There Are First Signs Of Power Struggle In Russia

Volodymyr Fesenko: There Are First Signs Of Power Struggle In Russia
Volodymyr Fesenko

Prolonging the war bears great risks for Putin.

Igor Girkin, the former leader of the DPR terrorists and a war criminal, said that Putin would flee Russia following the example of the former President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych. Is this scenario really possible? The Charter97.org website asked Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political scientist and the head of the Penta Center for Applied Policy Research.

– It was natural what happened to Yanukovych. Despite his showy power and severity, he always showed weakness in critical situations. This was during the Orange Revolution in December 2004, but there was also a lesser-known situation. In the parliamentary 2012 elections, when the opposition received quite a lot of votes, there was even an attempt at a mini-Maidan near the Central Election Commission, and then Yanukovych disappeared for 10 days. The events of February 2014 also showed his weakness.

It seems to me that Putin has a different character. The Putin regime is stronger than the Yanukovych regime of its time. The most important thing is that there is no such strong civil society that would constantly fight for its rights in Russia, there is no such experience of the protest movement as it was in Ukraine. Therefore, I would not make a link between the events in Ukraine and possible events in Russia. I think the situation will develop differently there.

– So, what’s your opinion? What scenario is applicable in the case of the Russian Federation?

– Putin has more to fear from his entourage. Actions on the part of close people if they suddenly feel danger to themselves. I do not really believe in palace coups, nevertheless, I think that the situation in the Russian Federation will develop differently than it was in Ukraine.

– Speaking of Putin and his entourage, are there many different opposing groups around the Kremlin’s chief?

– I am not an expert on the fight between various groups surrounding Putin. The gray area is quite large but I follow the situation, of course. In my opinion, firstly, the Kremlin has its own war party. It exists not only near Putin but also outside the Kremlin. It is even stronger outside the Kremlin. Let’s mention Prigozhyn [the founder of the Wagner PMC - Ed.] and Kadyrov [the head of Chechnya - Ed.]. They are part of the Putin regime but operate outside the Kremlin.

By the way, the emergence of such a phenomenon as Prigozhyn is much more important in the future than just the struggle of groups in the Kremlin. After all, he has a private military company, in fact, his own army. Kadyrov also has his own army. They are players with their own forces, which they can use in case of destabilization of the central government or if something happens to Putin. This can lead to the fact that the power struggle within Russia can go on with the use of force and resources. Also, the resources of these private armies.

It has not accidentally recently become known that Gazprom is creating its own private military company. I think that some other Russian state corporations are already doing this, but they do announce it. This is important for the future, because it can lead Russian politics in a completely different direction. This will no longer be just a behind-the-scenes struggle of groups near Putin but a power struggle using methods of force, including military force.

Returning to Putin's entourage, there is a heterogeneous group of security officials there. There are the military with their own interests, the FSB, Patrushev [the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation - Ed.], he supervises all power structures and in itself is, one might say, the most powerful figure among the security forces. According to various rumors, he claims to have his son become Putin's successor.

The Russian defence establishment consists of supporters of the war against Ukraine and confrontation with the West, but it seems that even they understand that the war has reached a dead end and they need to act more rationally. Putin is not yet ready for this.

The other establishment is those who used to be called the ‘sislibs’ (systemic liberals). It has now practically ceased to exist. We can say that there is a certain camp of relatively moderate technocrats. These are those who are focused on solving the economic issues of Russia, on maintaining internal social stability, at least relative one. They do not interfere in matters related to the war against Ukraine.

Relatively speaking, Prime Minister Mishustin, Moscow Mayor Sobyanin, the head of the Russian Sberbank German Gref and some others are among them. The war creates a lot of problems for them. It seems to me that if they had their will and Putin agreed, then they would be looking for a compromise on how to get out of the war.

There are some figures with their entourage who are also trying to influence both Putin and the internal situation.

– Who are you talking about?

– There is Yuri Kovalchuk there. He is one of the very few people who, according to Russian data, have direct communication with Putin. He is in tune with him in terms of both the war against Ukraine and hostility towards the West. Plus, he has his own very influential media holding. I emphasize that Patrushev and Kovalchuk have been the two closest people to Putin over the past two years, according to various sources.

Sergei Kiriyenko is the most powerful figure in the Kremlin’s officialdom. According to various sources, he is close to Kovalchuk but plays his own game. He occupied the position of the Prime Minister. Kiriyenko has been creating a personnel resource for the Putin regime for several years now. It turns out that there many of his people are occupying various positions in the central government of the Russian Federation and in the regions, as well as the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. Therefore, it should be considered as a separate player of the apparatus that influences the decision-making process. He can be a significant figure in the event of an aggravation of the struggle for power if suddenly something happens to Putin.

There are figures who have traditionally been part of Putin's entourage but have moved to the periphery. In any case, now they are not so noticeable. This is the leadership of Gazprom, headed by Miller, and Sechin, we should also mention Dmitry Medvedev, who still hopes to once again be Putin's successor. He has lost his former influence but is steadily trying to remind the information field about himself. His political weight has greatly decreased, and even his military rhetoric is perceived ironically among many Russians. They perceive him as a reincarnation of Zhirinovsky: there is a lot of noise, but there is no real political influence. He should be taken into account because he also takes some part in the internal struggle, intrigues in Kremlin and competition between different Kremlin towers.

– What is the future for Putin and Russia as a whole?

– It is too early to draw final conclusions because the various scenarios are possible. Putin may stay in power with his decrepit regime causing a new deep political crisis in Russia. In my opinion, this is the most realistic scenario, not now but in the future. There is also a conditional scenario of new turmoil. There is also a scenario with a successor, a struggle for power even while Putin is alive.

Let me stress that the situation with the war in Ukraine will largely influence the further development of events within Russia. Dragging out this war, which Putin staked on, can actually lead to very big risks for him.

After all, the internal social and economic situation is deteriorating due to the war, the accumulation of discontent, and if serious military defeats in Ukraine are added here, then we can talk about the Girkin-Strelkov scenario with which we started.

The Russian system is very much linked to Putin. If the Russian ruler will be weak and his defeats will become obvious to everyone, then the Putin regime and Putin personally will be strongly delegitimized. The myth of a man who has always won in everything and personified the “power of Russia” will be destroyed. This could indeed be a huge danger for Putin. Therefore, the war in Ukraine is something that will influence the internal Russian situation.

The state of Putin's health is also a strong factor and, of course, the domestic social, economic and political situation, including the started power struggle.

Prigozhyn's unsystematic activity destroys the old rules of the game in Russia. The founder of the Wagner PMC threatens both generals and governors and tries to show himself as an influential player, regardless of his real status within the Putin regime. I believe that this is the first sign that the power struggle is already beginning in Russia while Putin is alive.

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