ISW: Kremlin Actually Replaced Commander of Russian Troops In Ukraine After Prigozhin's Rebellion

Gerasimov’s role is minimized.

After Prigozhin's rebellion, the Kremlin is considering about what to do with Shoigu and Gerasimov. At the same time, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that Mikhail Teplinskiy has already received one of the leading roles in the war against Ukraine among Russian generals.

The key demand of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and one of the purposes of the rebellion was the dismissal of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov from their positions. However, by taking these steps, Russian President Vladimir Putin risks showing his weakness.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin will try to balance between restoring the authority of the state's military leadership and removing power from those who may have sympathized with the rebellion. But it's not that easy.

“Moscow may attempt to placate disdain for the MoD establishment by reducing Gerasimov’s role in operations in Ukraine, although he is highly likely to maintain, at least nominally, the position of overall theater commander and his long-term role as Chief of the General Staff. Gerasimov’s removal from either position would be too damaging to Putin’s and the MoD’s reputation,” the ISW also writes.

The head of the aggressor state definitely appreciates Gerasimov's loyalty, but, as experts are convinced, personnel changes in the Russian military leadership still cannot be avoided. More and more in the arena will appear, obviously, General Mikhail Teplinsky, although he is already de facto one of the main commanders of the war against Ukraine.

Teplinsky commanded the Russian forces and mercenaries of the Wagner Group in the Bakhmut direction in the winter of 2023. However, it is not clear whether he supported PMCs during the uprising, because during the uprising he did not make a single public statement.

Teplinsky received a post in the military command in April 2023, becoming one of the most famous commanders opposing Gerasimov. He is allegedly responsible for the sectors of the front where Russian troops are holding defence against the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.