Belarusian Potash Exports Collapse Record Low

Belaruskali's competitors have estimated the size of the decrease in supplies.

Nutrien and Mosaic, Belaruskali's main North American competitors, have published their quarterly reports. They estimate the supply of potash fertilisers from Belarus in 2023.

Mosaic forecasts that shipments of Belarusian potash fertilisers will be 5-6 million less this year than in the pre-sanctions period. Nutrien estimates the decrease in Belarusian shipments at 4-5 million tonnes compared to 2021. Exports from Russia will decrease by 3-4 million tonnes compared to the same year.

In mid-July, First Deputy Prime Minister of the Belarusian government Mikalai Snapkou said that Belarus was going to export 8 million tonnes of potash fertilizers this year. Since the beginning of the year, 2.7 million tonnes have been transshipped through St. Petersburg terminals. Our country usually exported 10-12 million tonnes of potash fertilizers.

Nutrien also reduced its forecast for global potash supplies this year to 63-65 million tonnes. The company also notes that it will experience difficulties with exports because of the strike at the Port of Vancouver. It also points to a decline in global potash prices in the second quarter against the background of a delay in signing the Chinese contract. It should be noted that BPC called the price that the Canadian trader received out of line with market conditions. In the third quarter, the Canadians expect fertiliser demand to increase as buyers' inventories are depleted.

At the same time, Nutrien said it had decided to limit its annual potash output to 18 million tonnes as a response to prevailing market conditions.

According to the company's report, it shipped just over 6 million tonnes of fertiliser in the first half of the year, down 11% year-on-year. At the same time, sales revenue fell by 45% to $2.01bn. The average price per tonne of potash halved year-on-year to $334.

Mosaic also noted in its report that potash prices have fallen. The company's sales for the second quarter totalled $849 million compared to $1.6 billion last year. At the same time, in physical terms, potash sales fell by only 0.1 million tonnes to 2.2 million tonnes. The average margin per tonne of potash decreased over the year from $403 to $155.