Ukrainian Army Advanced 28 km In The South

Russian supply lines are under threat.

Ukrainian troops advanced 28 km deep into Russian-controlled territory. If they manage to advance another 16 km, then long-range artillery and missiles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can strike the supply lines of the Russian army. This will not be enough to “suffocate” the Russian troops in occupied Crimea. It will significantly complicate Russian operations and force them to rely more on the Kerch Bridge and shipping, which have proven vulnerable.

Well-regarded British expert Mark Galeotti writes about this for The Times.

However, if there is no success in the counteroffensive, the Russians can take advantage of the winter and the break in hostilities to build even more defensive lines over the winter.

Western media tend to fluctuate between defeatism and triumph, and two weeks ago, when anonymous sources in the Pentagon predicted no real progress before winter, there appeared suggestions in the Western media that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could reach the Sea of Azov.

The outcome of this offensive will also depend on supply, and here the growing influence of international industrial alliances creates another layer of complexity. The West and its industry are helping Ukraine. At the same time, Austrian military expert on the use of combat aviation Tom Cooper, argues that the West and NATO have such powerful strike systems that they can destroy Russia’s ability to resist in the occupied territories. However, they aren't in a rush to supply such weapons to Ukraine.