Oleksandr Musienko: Many Countries Will Move Away From CSTO And Russia Following Armenia’s Example

The expert pointed out an important moment.

Armenia withdrew its permanent representative from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and announced joint military exercises with the United States.

The Charter97.org website asked Ukrainian military expert, head of the Center for Military Legal Research Oleksandr Musienko to comment on the actions of the Armenian government:

— This is not the first signal from Armenia regarding the CSTO. That is, we see the systemic policy of the Armenian government, which is, firstly, to distance itself from the CSTO. Secondly, it is even possible to leave the organization and start negotiations with the West about the possibility of a wider integration, as far as possible given their geographical position.

In principle, this is evidence that the Armenians have clearly assessed the lack of prospects for this project. Armenia felt this firsthand when it applied for protection more than once during the Karabakh war. They heard that Russia would not support or help them. Even the base that is in Gyumri, where the Russian military is located, was not useful. That is, it did not play any real role.

That is why now we see such a position of Armenia. I do not rule out that other countries will follow its example, with the exception, of course, of Belarus. Now there are nuclear weapons and it will not be possible to get out until it succeeds.

I note that during all the recent meetings of the CSTO, held at the highest level, everything was written on the faces of the comrades sitting at Putin's round table. Let's say it's boring, tedious, uninteresting, but we play the part. Some ceremonial functions and nothing more. Obviously, these countries will not go to war.

— It turns out that the former allies are distancing themselves from Russia. What could be the consequences for the Kremlin?

— Still not enough distance. I think that we will see the development of the process. While there is a cautious distancing, since in some countries, like Kazakhstan, the position remains to maintain some kind of working relationship with Russia. They are trying to find a balance.

Here I would draw attention to an important point: all the so-called allies of Russia are beginning to actively seek support in other countries. Some in China, some in the United States, and some in India. The same Armenia that we are talking about has found support from India, where they buy a lot of weapons.

Another example is Kazakhstan, which is trying to find support in three centers at once: China, the United States (which have serious investment interests), and Turkey. This indicates that the withdrawal of these countries from Russia is inevitable.

It will simply happen when it becomes possible to enlist the support of influential world players with a further weakening of Russia.

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