Russia Has Seen A 20-year High In Corporate Delinquencies

26.10.2026, 18:14

The aggressor country's economy is edging ever closer to a full-blown crisis.

An economic slowdown, tax hikes, falling profits, and high interest rates on loans are pushing Russia ever closer to a full-blown payment crisis.

In 2026, the volume of overdue debt owed by companies and sole proprietors to one another rose to its highest level in more than 20 years, according to report by analysts at Expert RA. They cite data from Rosstat, according to which the volume of business accounts payable increased by 28% over the year—or 32 trillion rubles—and reached 155 trillion as of the end of June.

“This is the highest growth rate over a 12-month period since 2004,” notes “Expert RA.” Analysts describe this trend as “widespread” and attribute it to companies’ lack of funds to finance their operating activities.

“Faced with a shortage of working capital, losses, the high cost of traditional financing, and difficulties in securing it, companies began <�…> to delay payments to their counterparties,” explains “Expert RA.” Thus, businesses are effectively receiving “free commercial credit,” analysts note, and this method of financing is becoming the primary one: intercompany debts are growing faster than borrowing (+12%) or raising capital through bonds (+13%).

Companies across all economic sectors are paying each other worse. Among large companies, 23.8% are delaying payments (compared to 20.8% a year ago), and the share of those who are more than 60 days past due has increased by 1.5 times since the beginning of 2025—from 4.1% to 6.5%. Among medium-sized companies, 20.6% are delaying payments (compared to 17.4% a year earlier), including 6.2% that are more than 60 days late.

“The situation is worsening against the backdrop of the Central Bank’s high key rate and a shortage of working capital among companies,” and as a result, there is a “risk of a domino effect,” warns Expert RA: “Affected suppliers, having failed to receive payment from their primary debtors, are themselves unable to pay their own contractors on time.”

It is becoming increasingly difficult for businesses to make payments: net profit in the economy for the first half of the year fell by 13.3% compared to 2025 and by nearly a quarter compared to 2024. The share of unprofitable companies has jumped from 28% to 34% over the past two years. “Companies have fewer and fewer funds and sources of financing for expensive loans and credits, which is why they have begun to increase the proportion of installment payments in their payment structure. Paying their counterparties later is becoming cheaper than paying them on time, but at the expense of borrowed funds,” writes “Expert RA.”

In 2027, credit risks in the economy “will continue to grow,” the agency’s analysts emphasize: According to the government’s forecast, GDP will grow by only 1.4%, investment by just 0.2%, and the Russian Central Bank will continue to keep the key rate high. At its meeting on Friday, the Central Bank left the rate unchanged at 14% per annum and raised its rate forecast to 12.5–13.5% for next year (up from 10.5–12.5%).

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