No Superpower Emerged: Putin Is Losing Influence And "Friends"

27.10.2026, 15:49
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The Kremlin has also reached an impasse in the Balkans.

The former president of Serbia and leader of the previously ruling Progressive Party Aleksandar Vučić, who has dominated Serbian politics for more than a decade, conceded defeat in the parliamentary elections held on October 25. In the elections, which saw a record voter turnout, the “Student List”—a coalition of Vucic’s opponents—emerged victorious.

Aleksandar Vucic was a longtime friend of the Kremlin. The former president of Serbia was among Putin’s few European friends, alongside the leaders of Hungary and Slovakia—Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico. In 2025, Vučić even attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow.

But in April of this year, Viktor Orbán, one of the Kremlin’s most important allies, lost the election. Yet he had repeatedly blocked or delayed EU decisions on aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. And now it’s Vucic’s turn.

Alongside the news from Serbia, the media is discussing a Financial Times article detailing the negotiations the U.S. leadership conducted with Vladimir Putin to end the war. The American messages to Putin were allegedly conveyed by his longtime friend, Matthias Warnig, a former Stasi officer who has been doing business with Russian state-owned companies for many years. There is no official confirmation of this information.

According to the publication, in February 2023, Putin allegedly agreed to withdraw his troops to the line that Russia controlled prior to the invasion. In exchange, Ukraine was to recognize Russian control over Crimea. This was also confirmed by Verkhovna Rada deputy Oleksiy. He also stated that businessman Roman Abramovich was a key figure in the discussions.

The Kremlin’s loss of influence in Europe, why Putin has failed to turn Russia into a superpower, and where the protracted war has led him, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty discussed these issues with Deutsche Welle columnist Konstantin Egger.

On the evening of October 25, former Serbian President and leader of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SPP) Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat in the parliamentary elections. According to preliminary results, the SPS is set to win 105 seats in the National Assembly—the country’s unicameral parliament. The opposition “Student List” is set to win at least 135 seats.

The Kremlin Is Losing Friends in Europe

Does Aleksandar Vučić’s defeat signal Serbia’s shift away from Russian influence, and what lies ahead for the country in the near future? European politics expert Petar Tanev explains:

- I got the impression that the “Student List,” which won the election in Serbia, is a very diverse coalition. Nevertheless, it seems that even Serbian society was not particularly pleased with former President Aleksandar Vučić’s openly pro-Russian course. Undoubtedly, everyone noticed that he lacked a clear position on the country’s accession to the European Union. Serbian society does not want to join NATO due to the historical consequences of NATO’s military operation against Yugoslavia and the regime of Slobodan Milošević. However, Serbian youth want Serbia to move closer to the European Union and achieve European integration.

That is why both the European Commissioner for European Integration Marta Kos and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen are pleased with the victory of the “Student List” in Serbia. But looking to the immediate future, let’s see what kind of government the so-called “Student List”—which opposes Aleksandar Vučić—will propose. It’s a mix of the most diverse political factions. There are people there who are by no means pro-European forces, but I must admit that these forces will most likely contribute to Serbia’s rapprochement with the European Union. The results of these elections are a clear indicator that Russia is losing its influence in Serbia and the Balkans, according to Petar Tanev.

Deutsche Welle political analyst Konstantin Eggert explained how the results of the Serbian elections will affect future Russian-Serbian relations:

- Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin will have to work with the new Serbian authorities, with a new government, and that’s not great for them. Many things will have to start over from scratch. Of course, the Russian diplomatic mission in Belgrade is operational, but Moscow faces a typical problem—it gets used to its “friends” and never works with the opposition. That said, as long as Serbia does not join the European sanctions, nothing catastrophic will happen for the Kremlin. The outlook for the country will involve cleaning up the corrupt structures built up over many years in power, reshaping the Serbian leadership, and the departure of some of the old appointees. But the main issue for Serbia today is that in the Western Balkans, it is perceived as a backward country that is lagging behind.

This is due to a number of reasons, including the structure of the economy, which is heavily dependent on Russia. In this regard, I will be very interested to see how Serbia’s new government will interact with Brussels, particularly regarding the gradual progress toward EU accession. This is a fairly extensive, bureaucratic, yet valuable process of internal transformation for the country. At the same time, we do not yet see the final election results. It seems to me that Vučić’s party retains a fairly significant presence in parliament. Therefore, parliamentary activity surrounding pro-European initiatives will undoubtedly be very complex. “I think this will also be a channel through which Moscow will attempt to influence Serbian political life,” says Konstantin Eggert.

According to the Financial Times, U.S. officials held talks with Vladimir Putin about ending the war, and information from the U.S. was relayed to the Russian president by his longtime friend, former Stasi officer Matthias Warnig. This information has not been officially confirmed.

Konstantin Eggert discusses what Vladimir Putin’s real strategy toward Ukraine is and whether he is ready for peace talks:

- The entire situation since 2022 shows that as long as Putin is alive, he will continue his policy of destroying the Ukrainian state. If he cannot permanently occupy some part of Ukraine, he will want to destroy everything else. That is his main goal. Everything else he says is a smokescreen—an attempt to keep the West, Europe, and the U.S. from taking any hostile actions against his regime, such as imposing sanctions or selling weapons to Ukraine. And every time, he manages to reel the West in on this hook. I read the Financial Times article.

I was shocked that the Joe Biden administration was willing to listen to Matthias Warnig, a former East German intelligence agent and Putin’s closest friend—someone I personally wouldn’t trust for a single second. We can see from this story that Putin’s nuclear blackmail against Joe Biden worked. As for the future—Vladimir Putin is now thinking about something very simple: I’ll crush Ukraine, everyone will see how tough and strong I am, that I’m not to be messed with, and as a result, they’ll make peace with me, lift the sanctions, recognize this status quo, and at the same time, they’ll hand over Moldova, Armenia, and all the other countries trying to break free from Moscow’s orbit to my control. That is Putin’s plan,” believes Konstantin Eggert.

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