Is Lukashenko Prepared For Attacks By The Ukrainian Armed Forces?

Russia won't save its ally.

The "Shahids" Unit from Belarus.

Currently, repeaters and ground stations are installed on their cell towers and at high vantage points, which ensure precise control of the “Shaheds” and other strike and reconnaissance drones flying into our northern territory.

Few people know how long Ukraine has been trying to quietly resolve this issue. Some of these ground-based drone control stations even suddenly exploded, though no one reported it anywhere. But it seems the message wasn’t clear enough.

And for the first time in perhaps hundreds of years, an armed ultimatum was issued in the Ukrainian language. For the first time in the history of independent Ukraine, the enemy is being openly threatened before the whole world: if you do not stop, we will strike you.

Our conflict with Belarus has been going on for five years now. It was through Belarus that Russia unleashed the horrors of Bucha and Irpin upon us. Did Lukashenko really not know what kind of execution lists the Russians were bringing with them?

At the time, we were forced to leave the Belarusians alone because we had more pressing matters to deal with. But they continued their poorly concealed war.

Under attack by the Russian-Belarusian coalition are our railroad line from Kyiv to Kovel, border towns, and the Warsaw Highway.

What are Lukashenko’s chances of holding out against our retaliatory strikes? Very slim.

If Russian air defense, hardened by five years of full-scale war against us, is becoming less capable by the day of countering our drones and missiles—and is unable to protect Moscow with all its units—then what can be said about the Belarusian army?

The capital—Minsk—is less than 300 km from us. The farthest target—Novopolotsk, home to an oil refinery supplying fuel for Russia’s offensive against us—is 450 km away, a distance well within the range of our long-range strike capabilities.

Is Russia capable of defending its ally? The answer is obvious. A significant portion of Belarus’s economy consists of oil refining and petrochemicals, which could vanish overnight.

The basis of Lukashenko’s legitimacy is peace for the average Belarusian, who has turned a blind eye to his own complicity in the massacre of Ukrainians. Therefore, there is a good chance that Lukashenko will start to make a move.

Igor Lutsenko, “Facebook”

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