Zelenskyy's Ultimatum: What Lies Ahead For Lukashenko

Three Scenarios.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his ultimatum to Lukashenko and stated that the Belarusian dictator must remove the relay stations for Russian drones, or else the Ukrainians will do it themselves.

How might events unfold after Zelenskyy’s ultimatum expires?

The website Charter97.org posed to Ukrainian political scientist and head of the “Penta” Center for Applied Political Studies Vladimir Fesenko:

— Events could unfold in various ways. The ultimatum might just hang in the air. In other words, it could all end with just a rhetorical escalation.

That’s why I say that the very form of an ultimatum with a deadline is a mistake. Here, Zelenskyy is following Trump’s lead. And we’ve already seen from Trump’s example that, in most cases, ultimatums simply don’t work. A warning—yes; pressure—yes; these can work, but without an ultimatum. The format itself, in my view, wasn’t ideal in this case.

But it seems to me that Zelensky most likely did this intentionally to speed up the process—to push the various parties toward negotiations on this issue. So a stalemate is a possible outcome.

Yes, this isn’t the best option for Zelenskyy, because he’ll be reminded of it. Another option, which I’ve already mentioned, is to begin negotiations behind closed doors. Zelenskyy could say that there has been a response and that negotiations on this issue have begun—without going into detail or providing specifics. These could be closed-door negotiations, as is often the case, or consultations on the matter. The negotiations could drag on. This is the most optimal scenario for how events will unfold.

The third option is if Lukashenko’s regime responds harshly—refusing to discuss the topic and resorting to aggressive rhetoric. In that case, there could be, for example, a scenario in which these drones are attacked by so-called Belarusian partisans.

Something similar has already happened—and not just once. In other words, Ukraine is not involved in this. As if to say, “Yes, we issued such an ultimatum, but Ukraine’s friends in Belarus stepped in to resolve the issue—though Ukraine does not take responsibility for the fact that these repeaters have ceased operations.” This is also one possible solution to the problem. Of course, there are risks involved, but in this case, they are minimal. Ukraine will not be formally implicated in this kind of incident.

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