Did Gerasimov Deceive Putin?
1- 29.06.2026, 11:59
- 4,644
What's Behind the Kremlin Leader's Latest Statements.
The Russian dictator’s triumphant statements Vladimir Putin regarding advances on the front lines stem from the fact that he is being briefed on achievements that do not correspond to reality. This was noted in a commentary unian.net by military expert and former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine Ivan Stupak.
“This is what his General Staff reports to him. They report twice a day. That is, twice a day, military officials come to him and report on what is happening. But it’s no big secret that the Russian map of combat operations differs from reality—from the Deep State and from the ISW—by 15–17 km,” he said.
In other words, according to the expert, the Russian map of combat operations shows positions that are 15–17 km more advantageous to them than they actually are.
“This is because they need to regularly report positive news to their superiors. Reporting negative news for a long time—God forbid—or, at best, something neutral, still leads to discontent and could result in personnel reshuffles, so they’ve correctly gauged the mood. If you want everything to go well, report small but positive news every day: they’ve arrived here, they’ve secured a foothold there, they’ve driven the enemy out over there. No one asks any further questions about how it’s happening, where they’re standing, whether they’re holding their ground, or if they’ve been killed. The main thing is that the boss gets the report,” Stupak explained.
In his opinion, such positive reports are pushing Putin to continue military operations. Western analysts say the occupiers are stuck, but according to the Russian map, they are moving forward, which is why Putin isn’t sitting down at the negotiating table just yet.
The expert emphasized that Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory are painful, primarily for Crimea and the occupied territories:
“It’s not that there’s no fuel there. You can buy it on the black market, but it costs 250 UAH per liter. However, we’ll see the effect, roughly, in a month and a half, when the reserves stockpiled by the Russian military in these occupied territories run out, and that’s when we’ll truly see the first results of our attacks.”.
Due to the fuel shortage, as Stupak noted, the number of drone strikes on Ukraine will also decrease, because generators—and consequently, gasoline—are needed to charge them.
“If they haven’t brought in gasoline or a diesel generator, there’s no power, no way to charge the batteries—that’s it; there will be fewer drones, and their range will be shorter. But I expect this to happen in August. I think there will still be reserves in July, but by August—we’ll see some results,” he said.
Furthermore, in his opinion, Putin’s statement that the goal remains the entire Donbas and “Novorossiya” all the way to Odessa and Kharkiv is intended primarily for a domestic audience:
“It’s possible that over the course of the entire calendar year, they could capture somewhere between 90 and 95 percent of Konstantinovka. I think that by the end of the summer, we’ll lose two-thirds of Konstantinovka. But Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are major strongholds.”
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