The Crimean Bridge In The Crosshairs

Ukrainian strikes are turning Crimea into Russia's "Achilles' heel."

Crimea remains a key strategic foothold for Russia since the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula in 2014. However, its position is now becoming increasingly precarious.

As The Economist, the complete isolation of the peninsula would give Ukraine strong leverage in any future negotiations. Ukrainian drone operations targeting strategic infrastructure in Crimea are already having a tangible effect.

The publication notes that drone strikes are targeting not only infrastructure facilities but also road, rail, and sea routes connecting the peninsula to mainland Russia. According to the monitoring organization ACLED, of the 692 attacks recorded since 2022, more than half have occurred in the last 12 months.

The Kerch (Crimean) Bridge, which connects the peninsula to Russia, remains one of Ukraine’s prime targets—as a result, transporting hazardous cargo, particularly fuel, across it has become too risky. Heavy-duty vehicle traffic across the bridge is completely banned. Maritime traffic has also been disrupted.
The Economist notes that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, traditionally based in Sevastopol, has had to relocate to more remote ports. In addition, on July 13, Russia halted shipping through the Sea of Azov—a vital waterway through which a quarter of Russia’s grain exports pass. The very next day, Ukraine reported strikes on 11 ships in a single night.

The publication also notes that Russian troops in Crimea still have fuel and food supplies, but resupply is now proceeding more slowly. Local residents are having to stock up on non-perishable food and wait in line for hours at night to get gasoline.

Attacks by Ukrainian drones are not limited to Crimea. In June, ACLED recorded more than 100 strikes deep into Russian territory. Russian authorities claimed to have shot down 926 drones on July 13, but videos on social media suggest that at least some of them did reach their targets.

The Economist emphasizes that strikes on oil refineries and fuel distribution networks are hitting Russia’s export revenues and causing fuel shortages in the country. Russians haven’t seen such long lines at gas stations since the final days of the Soviet Union.
The publication also notes that, for the first time in a long while, Russia has begun to lose territory. At the same time, from February 2022 through July 13, 2026, Russian military casualties ranged from 367,000 to 602,000—representing 1–2% of the country’s pre-war male population of draft age.

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