"The Entire Territory Of Belarus Is Laid Out Like The Palm Of Your Hand"
- 8.07.2026, 9:19
- 1,588
The Ukrainian Armed Forces may respond to Lukashenko's provocations.
Belarus could be drawn into a war even against Alexander Lukashenko’s will, but in the near term, the risk of a new front opening up between Belarus and Ukraine has decreased. At the same time, Minsk’s dependence on Moscow remains very significant, and strategic risks continue to grow. Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics , made these remarks on the air of “Belsat Studio”Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics.
According to Ruslan Bortnik, tensions remain high on NATO’s eastern flank, as the Alliance understands that Belarus cannot make security decisions entirely on its own. According to the expert, following the suppression of the protests, Russia’s influence over Belarusian security forces has significantly increased, and if necessary, Moscow could use Belarus to intensify pressure on NATO countries.
“Belarus could be drawn into a war even against the will of Lukashenko or his inner circle, for whom this would pose a threat of losing power. I think Lukashenko himself has absolutely no desire to become part of this war, as he understands his strategic vulnerability and the fact that Belarusian territory is exposed to the Ukrainian armed forces. But Belarus could still become part of this conflict,” Bortnik believes.
In his view, Lukashenko himself has no interest in dragging Belarus into a war, as he understands the country’s strategic vulnerability. However, the expert believes that Belarus could still become part of the conflict if Moscow’s interests so require. He added that NATO also understands this, which is why it regularly conducts military exercises in Poland and the Baltic states near the Belarusian border.
According to Bortnik, if Kyiv deems that Belarus is acting directly against Ukraine, a response may prove inevitable. At the same time, he noted that, in addition to the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, there are other means of exerting pressure on the Belarusian government.
“The Mozyr Oil Refinery is extremely close to the Ukrainian border. The entire territory of Belarus is as clear as day. If Ukraine deems that Belarus is acting hostilely toward it, a response will certainly follow. Furthermore, we are well aware that there is a fairly strong opposition in Belarus—not only political but also military. The Kalinovsky Regiment, for example, creates opportunities for various indirect actions,” he noted.
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