An Expert Explained What Kinds Of Attacks Could Bring Down Russia's Power Grid
- 24.08.2026, 4:00
There are seven points that, if struck, could cause a large-scale blackout.
Which sectors of the Russian economy could be the next targets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces? The website Charter97.org spoke with Ukrainian political strategist and managing partner of the “National Anti-Crisis Group” Taras Zagorodniy:
— For Ukraine, the top priority remains the destruction of Russia’s oil refineries, primarily in the European part of the country and partly in the Asian part. Because if oil refining stops, the entire economy begins to grind to a halt.
Look, estimates now suggest that they have about 30% of their gasoline production capacity remaining and about 30% for diesel. And what is diesel? Diesel is practically everything. It powers locomotives, transportation, the military, and much more. If this fuel isn’t available, the country simply starts to grind to a halt. And, essentially, its disintegration begins.
Well, how would you supply, for example, Yakutia or the Far East with fuel? How do you cover such vast distances? That’s why I think the main attacks right now will target oil refineries. At the same time, key routes through the Black Sea are being blocked. If, for example, Russian grain exports were halted for a month, Russia wouldn’t receive any additional foreign exchange revenue. There are also problems with oil exports. For some strange reason, tankers aren’t calling at Novorossiysk. Probably because they’re being intercepted in the Black Sea.
Russia is also trying to pull a fast one with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. There was an agreement with the Americans: here’s your chartered vessel; it picks up oil from Kazakhstan and sails “in the open,” with its transponder turned on. Everything is clear.
But then some shady ships flying the Liberian flag started entering the area and also picking up CPC oil. One of them was also intercepted somewhere in the Black Sea. Because when an unidentified vessel appears, the question arises: is this Kazakhstani oil or Russian oil? The Russians are trying to export their oil this way.
In essence, it’s difficult to determine the origin of the oil. The only clear way to identify it is when there’s a specific chartered vessel—say, Chevron—with its transponder turned on, sailing to pick up its oil, which is being pumped from Kazakhstan. Then everything is clear. And the Russians, as always, are trying to be sneaky in this regard. Overall, Ukraine is blocking very important arteries that sustain the Russian economy. But the main target, of course, is oil refining. And later, closer to fall, I think strikes on energy and gas infrastructure may begin, because Ukraine has left it virtually untouched so far. And gas, among other things, is used to power power plants.
As far as I know from the analysis of our energy experts, there are seven points in Russia whose destruction could lead to a large-scale blackout in the southern part of the country. I think Ukraine is working on this. If you saw the raid on Novorossiysk, take note of how it was organized. Various units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and special services were operating there simultaneously. This is because different agencies have their own objectives and their own tools: some use drones, others use missiles. For example, the “Neptune” is generally under the command of the Navy, because it was originally an anti-ship missile. It has now been adapted for strikes against ground targets as well.
And all of this works together. That’s why I think energy infrastructure could be the next important target. The goal is to cause a blackout in Russia.
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