Leanid Zaika: “For competitive ability of Belarusian goods, ruble should be devalued by 50%”

The term “consequences” is used in Belarus instead of “crisis” though everyone understands that crisis process has started, independent experts say.

Recently, at the third summit of directors, deputy Economy Minister of Belarus Andrei Tur stated that the crisis hasn’t affected the Belarusians seriously yet.

However, it is not clear whom he wanted to persuade more, himself or those heads of enterprises present, “Belorusskiye Novosti” inform.

As the deputy minister stated, we are allegedly in the beginning of the path of potential consequences. Though the crisis is still to influence us, Tur believes. It starts to move from the world stock and financial markets to goods markets, which begins to tell in Belarus. “Export of Belarusian goods has dwindled already. Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation are in a difficult situation. Production is reduced by 50% there. Ukraine is in a very difficult situation. They cannot pay to Belarusian enterprises as hryvnia is almost inconvertible,” the deputy minister said.

In January 2008 at the analogous enterprise the same deputy minister of economy paid attention to fact rather alarming for the Belarusian economy: 100-110 strategic positions today are determined by more than 2/3 of the Belarusian export. Blow at any of them would influence the common volume of export. That is why, Tur said then, “the goal of export diversification is the goal of today and of the rest of the life”.

As said by the head of “Strategy” analytical centre Leanid Zaika, instead of the “crisis” the word “consequences” is used, though everybody understands that crisis process has started. He believes that “a crisis is wonderful”, as it was the situation “when something is going on”, as national economies which were leading in the world, happened to come to the state of “cognitive dissonance”.

According to the evaluation of the expert, export sales are to decrease by 15-20%. “In recent years Belarus developed mostly at the expense of export. Our export was fabulous. More than 40% went to Western Europe. It was mostly oil products: petrol, diesel fuel. As a result, our export caused the situation when a litre of petrol costs 1 dollar, and 60 cents in Ukraine”. As the expert noted, Russia and Ukraine are now improving conditions of trade for exporters and devalue their national currency: Russia by 12%, Ukraine by 30%. For competitive ability of Belarusian goods at markets at neighbouring countries, Belarus should devalue its currency by 50%, Zaika believes.