Russian gas prices can increase in third quarter of 2008

Russian gas prices have risen significantly, taking into account recent statement of new Gazprom CEO Viktor Zubkov, it is quiet possible that they will also increase for Belarus in the third quarter of the year. It seems that the Belarusian government thinks the discussion on prices for the second quarter will distract attention from the prices for the third quarter.

Famous Belarusian politologist Valerya Kastsyuhova said it in an interview to “Nashe Mnenie” newspaper, commenting on the information that Belarus pays for gas USD 119 per 1,000 cu m in the second quarter of the year, as in the first one. According to deputy minister of energy Eduard Taupinets, this decision was made by Beltransgaz supervisory board, while Gazprom thinks Belarus buys gas at USD 128 per 1,000 cu m in the second quarter. Based ion its calculations, Gazprom believes Belarus’s debt for the first quarter of the year is USD 45 mln.

“Here a peculiar feeling of justice appears: actually, why should a seller set up prise? In our case a buyer – Beltransgaz – calculated a price according to a suggested formula and pays it. Speaking seriously, I think the Belarusian party wanted to begin a costs discussion, which is not provided by terms of a four-year contract, but have a discussion so that not to break the contract and not to extend it beyond the price band,” the expert thinks.

Meantime, Valerya Kastsyohova notes, according to the terms of the contract, Belarus can’t influence the prices, in other words, it is deprived of its main political instrument.

“The authorities need winnings, the main of them have always been gas prices, regained from a Russian monster. It is a primary and main reason why the Belarusian government always returns to the gas issue. It is important for it to represent gas prices, determined by Gazprom, as another hard but deserved victory,” the politologist says.

The politologist also has another version of the events. “gas prices have significantly grown, and taking into account a recent statement of new Gazprom CEO Viktor Zubkov, it is quiet possible that they will also increase for Belarus in the third quarter of the year. It seems that the Belarusian government thinks the discussion on prices for the second quarter will distract attention from the prices for the third quarter. A question of Beltransgaz’s innovation assessments to the Belarusian budget is still unsettled, however, there is a chance this issue will be lost among other problems. And finally, there is a problem of 2009: prices for Belarus are to increase up to USD 200 per 1,000 cu m from the next year, and the Belarusian government hopes to find a way, which will allow to define 80 per cent of average European prices as, for example, USD 160-170 for Belarus,” Kastsyuhova says.

“I suppose, it is the aim of the constant competitions of the right to construct a nuclear plant in Belarus, announced by the authorities, in any case, it would be difficult to explain why they always happen at the end of the quarter. A nuclear power plant is one more argument for price reduction for Belarus. It is an intrigue with a well-known background that attracts permanent attention for the reason,” the expert concluded.