West shouldn’t’ take part in bargaining by political hostages

Any regime in its arbitrary decisions always evaluates the force of resistance of the civil society and political opposition. None of the modern dictators started from total lawlessness immediately: he was permitted to so by his entourage and key players in the international arena, writes one of the leaders of the Belarusian Social Democratic Hramada, a former political prisoner Syarhei Skrabets.

In the second part of the 1990ies Lukashenka couldn’t imagine clearly by which means he would have to maintain power seized in a result of few referendums. Their scenarios didn’t guarantee constant silence of the thinking and active minority of the population.

A series of mysterious abductions of political opponents followed. And if death of Zmitser Zavadsky, considering his more harmless status (an independent journalist is not as dangerous as main oppositional lawyers) was written off for unsanctioned actions of a few thugs, nothing is still clear with disappeared Viktar Hanchar and Yury Zakharanka. The official version of their escape to Austria or to Ukraine is not taken seriously even among those who believe propaganda enthusiastically.

Losses of this “elegant victory” over the dissenters were rather great, so the regime started to look for new power technologies, less odious ones. As long as the legal system, defense and law enforcement agencies have become completely specialized for a system of one-man absolute supremacy in a few years, a system of criminal punishment for political rivals has come into fashion. They were charged with petty hooliganism (at the best case), and with grave economic crimes.

The list of Lukashenka’s opponents who had drunk this bitter cup is well-known. The sad score opened by Marynich and Staravojtau, recently was for a time ended by Kazulin, Parsyukevich and Kim.

And what have the regime learnt – with the help of Western game technicians?

Political terrorism in the form of taking political hostages is rather effective. The procedure is simple: to put behind the bars a dozen or two of oppositionists; to keep them in prison as long as it would be needed for the public opinion of international community to come to the end of its tether. Then you give in to genuflectory pleas of sentimental international community and release prisoners, with a condescending air. Meanwhile, system-level changes, at least in methods of vote count, are not even mentioned. The cannibal has released a few people, he is left without a breakfast. Is it possible to insist on continuation of his hunger, forcing him to count votes honestly? Let political prisoners starve… In this way they would make their own problem even more tragic for the West, and making their “hypothecary value” higher.

The mechanism of violence aimed for illegal retention of power is not changing a grain: the persons are the same, notorious for the silent investigation of high-profile cases; procedures of consideration of activists’ cases in courts are getting even more cynically predictable; the crackdown on free information is reinforced at the legislative level.

To put it short, “Vaska the cat listens – but keeps on eating”.

If Western politicians haven’t read Krylov’s fable, they should at least remember fiasco of their own diplomatic practices which resulted in the World War II… one shouldn’t even speak about the price of “the aggressor’s appeasement” for the German nation, it is enough to remember the final cost of it for the democratic world itself.

Meanwhile the Belarusian regime speaks in the language of the United States: when I wish, I execute my adversaries, and when I wish I pardon them. And you should learn to be happy about my vegetarianism, which is mistaken for humanity by you…

So far (for about half a year) this technology is doing well: the skills of the official Minsk in “trading and selling hostages” is growing. But at whose expense?

The released politicians lose: the system which has put them in prisons just gets assured of its own impunity. The politicians who are at large are on the losing side: at any moment they can become a bargaining chip for cynical trading. Upright citizens, those who care, are losing, as the system of dictatorship is reinforcing its positions at the expense of lives of those who are dissenters.

And the authorities are winning, and, possibly, bookkeepers of Western diplomacy. I want to be mistaken about the latter.

Note of the Charter’97 press-centre: a former political prisoner Syarhei Skrabets intended to take part in the so-called “parliamentary elections” as a candidate for a deputy, however after politically motivates criminal cases were brought up against two members of his initiative group, the politician refused to take part in the elections, and called upon boycott.