‘This Goal Is Tied To Two Speeches By Putin’

A Ukrainian expert told how Avdiivka is exhausting the Russians.

In a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), analysts said that Ukrainian troops carried out a successful counterattack in the Avdiivka area and advanced.

Ukrainian military-political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko told Charter97.org in more detail about the situation on the hottest section of the front:

— The fact is that the counterattack in question took place in the area of the village of Stepove. Some time ago the Russians were able to cross the railway and go out to the right side of it. There is simply such a specificity that the village of Stepove borders on the railway, practically adjacent, there is a small distance between them. When you come out on the right side of the railway, you can say that you find yourself on the outskirts of the village itself.

The Russians were unable to gain a foothold in these positions, but they were able to use them for constant attacks in the direction of Stepove. The Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out counterattacks that pushed the Russians back to the left side of the railway, and this location is now controlled by the Ukrainian military, which in turn minimizes threats to Stepove.

— Will the Russians be able to achieve their goal and take Avdiivka?

— They really have such a goal, it is tied to specific dates. There are two options — either for Putin’s big speech with a message to the nation, or for his New Year’s speech. All this is necessary so that Putin, either during communication with journalists or during the New Year’s address to Russians, can demonstrate some victories, some achievements.

Russia didn’t have any victories or achievements this year, so they can present Avdiivka as something sacred. Not some million-plus city, or a regional center, but a small town. But what an epic town this is, how important it is! Well, and other propaganda crap.

That is why they concentrate a large amount of forces and resources and do not take into account their losses. I will even say this, if they cannot occupy Avdiivka before the New Year, I have the feeling that they will not give up this goal and will follow the principle. Even despite the fact that these actions draw quite a serious resource from the Russian army, a colossal resource, even greater than it was during the attack on Bakhmut.

— Official reports have appeared that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to move the Russians on the left bank of the Kherson region. What are the prospects for the Ukrainian military in this direction?

— Here I can say that the process of creating a security buffer on the left bank for the right bank is underway. We are not talking about some kind of large-scale breakthrough, offensive, and so on. That is, these are quite specific actions due to the fact that we are creating a security buffer. It, of course, in the future can develop into a springboard for a counter-offensive, if the conditions are appropriate. But it’s too early to talk about this yet.

Our task now is to minimize attacks on the right bank by the Russians, and terrorist artillery attacks. And we already have the first results; mortar fire on the right bank has already decreased significantly. Now we work mainly with artillery, cannon and rocket artillery. Therefore, at least we managed to avoid mortar threats to the civilian population.

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