"The Time For 'gentlemen's Agreements' With Lukashenko Is Over"
3- 17.06.2026, 13:34
- 2,526
Belarusian oil refineries could become legitimate targets for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In an interview with Al Arabiya TV Lukashenko stated that he does not want Belarus to be drawn into a war against Ukraine, acknowledged the vulnerability of Belarusian facilities, and even began apologizing to Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Why has Lukashenko suddenly changed his tone so drastically right now and effectively begun to make excuses to Zelenskyy? The website Charter97.org asked Maxim Pleshko, a candidate of philosophical sciences and head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications , about this:
— The dictator sensed a real threat to his survival. Previously, he thought he could get away with participating in the aggression against Ukraine. Now the situation has changed. His “apology” to Volodymyr Zelenskyy on a major international TV channel is an attempt to deflect the blow.
Lukashenko sees that Putin is incapable of defending even his own territory. That is why the Minsk leader is trying to play the role of a “peacemaker” to save his regime. However, these excuses sound absurd and are nothing but hypocrisy.
— Russia is currently in a difficult situation: there is a stalemate on the front lines, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces are intensifying drone and missile strikes on military and logistical targets. Is Lukashenko’s new rhetoric related to this? Is he afraid of strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Belarus?
—Yes, Lukashenko is in a state of deep fear of Ukrainian drones. He himself openly admitted in an interview that Ukrainian drones are effectively destroying Russian factories and oil refineries all the way to the Urals.
The dictator understands perfectly well that Belarus is much closer. All of his military bases, airfields, as well as the Mozyr and Novopolotsk oil refineries are within range of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The time for “gentlemen’s agreements” is over. As Russia suffers setbacks and Ukraine builds up its technological capabilities, Lukashenko is beginning to panic. He fears that the next “explosion” will occur right at his own facilities.
— Lukashenko talks about peace, but Belarusian oil refineries are serving the Russian market, fuel exports to Russia have surged, and Belarus’s industry is integrated into the Kremlin’s war machine. Can Ukraine hold the dictator accountable for such assistance to the aggressor, and by what means?
— Ukraine has every legal and military right to punish the Belarusian regime. Contrary to his peaceful statements, Lukashenko is a direct accomplice in the war. The Belarusian economy today feeds and supports the occupying army. There are two main ways to hold him accountable:
— economic and legal pressure. Ukraine, together with its Western partners, must completely block Belarusian transit and strengthen sanctions—as Poland is already doing at the border. Lukashenko must be brought before international tribunals for aiding aggression and the abduction of Ukrainian children;
— a military response. The operation of Belarusian oil refineries in the interests of the Russian Federation’s military makes them legitimate military targets. If the regime continues to support the Kremlin’s war machine, targeted strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Belarus’s defense and fuel facilities could be a logical next step.
— Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi announced the reinforcement of the northern border and the creation of new UAV units near the border with Belarus. What actions by the Lukashenko regime might have prompted Kyiv to make this decision, and how serious is the threat from the Belarusian direction?
— Kyiv is taking preemptive action due to Minsk’s constant provocations. Lukashenko regularly conducts suspicious military exercises near the Ukrainian and European borders. In addition, Belarus provides its territory for Russian drone control stations that attack Ukrainian cities. This is precisely what forced Oleksandr Syrskyi to act decisively.
The immediate threat of an offensive by the Belarusian army is currently low, since Lukashenko has handed over most of his equipment and ammunition to Russia. The Belarusian military also has no motivation to die for Putin. However, the creation of new UAV units within the Ukrainian Armed Forces sends a clear signal to Minsk: in the event of even the slightest real threat, Ukraine’s response will be immediate and devastating. The dictator should have no illusions.
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