Ukrainian Forces Expanding Breakthrough Near Robotyne: Critical Moment For Russian Troops

The enemy's defenses may crumble along the entire Southern Front.

The advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the village of Robotyne is increasingly weakening the defensive lines of the Russian occupiers not only in this area, but also on the front as a whole.

This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukrainian forces advanced closer to the Russian second line of defense in the Robotyne area in western Zaporizhzhia region on August 24, further widening their breach of Russian defensive lines in the area.

Geolocated footage published on August 24 shows that Ukrainian forces advanced further towards the Russian defensive lines west of Verbove (18 km southeast of Orikhiv) and into southern Robotyne (10 km south of Orikhiv).

Some Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces maintain limited if any, positions in southern Robotyne and that fighting continues east of Robotyne. A prominent Russian milblogger expressed concern at the Ukrainian breach of Russian defensive lines in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and stated that this is a critical moment on the battlefield.

The milblogger stated that Russian forces need to hold their positions for at least another month and a half to try to make gains in another area of the frontline and attempt to shift the battlefield situation in favor of Russian forces.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valeri Zaluzhnyi responded to criticisms about the Ukrainian counteroffensive by stating that it was not a counterinsurgency but the Battle of Kursk, referencing a weeks-long World War II battle that ultimately allowed the Soviet army to regain the battlefield initiative and recapture significant swaths of territory.

Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces are conducting additional lateral redeployments from Kherson region to the frontline in Zaporizhzhia region, suggesting that Ukrainian forces have further degraded Russian defensive lines in the area. Spokesperson Natalya Humenyuk did not specify the Russian formations or units that are laterally redeploying to the Zaporizhzhia direction, nor did she specify whether the Russian forces are transferring to western Zaporizhzhia region or to the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia region border area.

Earlier, Russian forces redeployed elements of the 7th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division from the Kherson direction to the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia region border area following the start of the counteroffensive in June and additional elements to the Robotyne area in western Zaporizhzhia region in early August.

Humenyuk’s reporting supports ISW’s previous assessment that Russia’s lack of operational reserves will force the Russian command to conduct additional redeployments as Ukrainian counteroffensive operations continue to degrade defending Russian forces in several sectors of the front.

Russian lateral redeployments will likely weaken the Russian defensive lines in aggregate as these transfers offer Ukrainian forces additional opportunities for exploitation.

Exploiting these opportunities or preventing further lateral reinforcements will likely require Ukrainian forces to continue efforts in several sectors of the front. Such an approach [although it was criticized by the West — edit.] either pins Russian forces to a certain area or presents the Russian command with dilemmas about which axes to reinforce.

A Ukrainian offensive focused exclusively on a single axis would allow Russian forces to laterally redeploy forces from elsewhere in Ukraine without worrying about the consequences of weakening other sectors of the front as ISW has previously observed.

The ISW also notes a limited raid by Ukrainian forces on the western coast of the occupied Crimea, carried out on August 24. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) posted footage and announced that Ukrainian forces landed on the shores near Olenivka and Mayak (both 116 km northeast of Sevastopol).

Most Russian sources dismissed the landing as insignificant, but some prominent milbloggers expressed concern about Russian defensive vulnerabilities in the western Black Sea and western Crimea.