The Militia Won't Save Lukashenko

The government is preparing for the last war.

On October 16, Alexander Lukashenko observed a training exercise by one of the units of the so-called People’s Militia. He explained his strategic vision:

“Why did I seek to create a People’s Militia? I don’t want every other person here to die, as happened back in the days of the Great Patriotic War. Half the population was wiped out, and we didn’t fight back. But these guys will always fight back.”

It was also stated that such units should be formed in every village council.

A Show for the Leader

Note: whereas Lukashenko used to say that a third of the population died during that war, he is now speaking of half. Does he really want to inflate the death toll so badly just to rub it in the faces of Europeans—whom the autocrat indiscriminately calls descendants of the Third Reich?

Second point: Lukashenko was shown a model unit led by a former special forces soldier who regularly travels from Minsk to a remote region to train these “eagles.” They’re even learning to operate drones. And their gear is top-notch.

But you can’t assign a special forces soldier to every village council, and you won’t have enough drones to go around. So in this case, it’s just the usual show. And the combat readiness of most of the “militia” is questionable.

And, by the way, regarding the equipment. It turns out that this unit was outfitted by businessman Nikolai Vorobey, who is known as Lukashenko’s “wallet.” Lukashenko liked this. He stated that he wants to replicate this model across the entire country.

Thus, it’s entirely reasonable to expect that ordinary entrepreneurs—who are constantly being fleeced—will now also be squeezed for money to fund the “militia.”

“Toy armies” won’t save us

Lukashenko reminded the “militia”:

“You have a NATO country right here nearby. God forbid, of course, that we should have to fight them. But nevertheless, we must be ready.”
Of the Alliance countries, the one closest to the Verkhnedvinsk region is Latvia. That terrifying NATO monster! Seriously, though, they’re actually afraid over there that Russia might attack.

Lukashenko, as we can see, is effectively drawing a parallel between Hitler’s invasion and what he considers a possible act of aggression by the North Atlantic Alliance. Allegedly, the NATO “Horde,” just like the Nazi one of old, will march on our lands—and then the “militias” will be destined to fight for every village and every house.

But NATO is preparing for a different scenario. At the Warsaw Security Forum on October 12, the Commander-in-Chief of the Alliance’s Joint Forces in Europe, U.S. General Alexus Grinkevich presented the so-called “theory of victory”—a concept for action in the event of an attack on a NATO country.

According to Grinkevich, the Alliance intends to halt the initial attack, prevent the enemy from advancing further, and, if necessary, destroy the entire system that enables the waging of war. The general did not specify exactly where or by what means NATO might launch strikes.

Meanwhile, according to The Wall Street Journal, this concept envisages possible long-range missile strikes against Russian command posts and air defense facilities in the Kaliningrad region, near St. Petersburg, and in Belarus.

And if, God forbid, such a conflict were to break out, NATO forces would hardly be too concerned with distinguishing between Russian and Belarusian air defense systems. And anyway, war is war: a missile can land anywhere. Therefore, in the event of an escalation, no one will come out unscathed. And no “militia” will protect against those missiles.

The same applies to the scenario of a full-scale Belarusian-Ukrainian conflict. Kyiv won’t send its troops into its northern neighbor’s territory, but it could unleash hell with its missiles and drones. In June, Lukashenko acknowledged that Belarusian territory is “very vulnerable militarily if Ukraine were to attack Belarus the same way it attacks Russia, since Belarus is as clear as day to the Ukrainian military.”

The moral of the story is this: to avoid getting caught in the crossfire—whether from NATO or from the Ukrainians—one should not form military alliances with a decaying empire. But Lukashenko is like a pike caught in a net here. And all that’s left for the autocrat is to delude himself with the illusion that, if push comes to shove, those “toy sticks” will save him. No, they won’t.

Alexander Klaskovsky, “Belsat”

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