ISW Cited Impressive Figures On Russian Casualties

A record since the start of the war.

For the second month in a row, Russian troops are losing more territory in Ukraine than they are capturing. According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in October 2026, the Russian Federation’s army suffered net territorial losses of 27 square kilometers. At the same time, personnel losses reached their highest level since the start of the full-scale war.

According to analysts’ estimates, in October, the Russians captured 139.85 square kilometers but lost 167.14 square kilometers, meaning net losses totaled 27.29 square kilometers, or an average of 0.88 square kilometers per day. Taking infiltration into account, net losses rose to 76.38 square kilometers, which averages out to 2.46 square kilometers per day. The enemy achieved successes in the Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions, but lost territory in other sectors of the front, including the Donetsk region.

ISW reports that Russian troops captured 10 settlements with a total area of 5.86 square kilometers, while the Ukrainian military liberated or cleared 11 settlements covering 3.24 square kilometers of Russian saboteurs.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that in October, Russia lost 54,400 personnel killed or seriously wounded. This is the fourth consecutive month in which losses have exceeded 40,000 per month, and the highest figure since the invasion began in 2022. According to the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems Forces Robert (Madyar) Brovdi, the occupiers suffered the heaviest losses in the Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, and Huliaipole sectors.

The ISW believes that Russia continues to lose personnel and ground, while recruiting fewer soldiers than needed to replace its losses. This likely explains Vladimir Putin’s turn to a new “theory of victory”: it is based on the use of long-range ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones to force Ukraine to surrender over the winter.

Analysts note that the Russian army has lost the initiative and its offensive capabilities along most of the front. It retains the initiative only near Dobropillya in the Donetsk region, where the bulk of Russian offensive operations are concentrated. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have seized the initiative in the Kupiansk, Lyman, and Oleksandrivka sectors.

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