Another Week, And Chaos Will Break Out In Crimea

Sergey Marchenko
10.06.2026, 16:35
2,902

It all looks like it's going to be an unforgettable tourist season.

If the Russians fail to counter the Ukrainian attacks on fuel tankers and the situation persists for another week, chaos will break out in Crimea.

“This gasoline situation has finally reached us,” laments Fyokla in the Krasnodar Krai, asking, “Do we know what to do about this?” Yes, we know. You need to get out of there, because it’s only going to get worse.

There are major fuel problems in southern Russia and the occupied territories. And while this Fyokla in Krasnodar is whining as she stands in a massive, barely moving line for fuel, in Crimea they’re practically not selling any fuel at all. There are lines of 250–300 cars at gas stations, but there’s no fuel, and the attendants say there won’t be any.

All of this looks like an unforgettable tourist season in Crimea. Those fools who decided to go on vacation to a war zone will have a lot of fun pushing their cars across the Crimean Bridge.

If the Russians don’t find a way to counter the Ukrainian attacks on fuel trucks and the situation persists for another week, chaos will ensue in Crimea. Right now, Russians who can’t leave are staying put, but it’s clear that it will get harder every day, as new vacationers arrive and the old ones will soon be kicked out onto the street.

A lack of fuel will lead to food shortages. Even now, food purchases in Crimea are limited, and grim times lie ahead for Crimea—with no food and no way to leave. This is a massive social strain, and the dear Russians certainly won’t like it.

The idyllic picture of Crimea, which has returned to its “native harbor,” is falling apart at the seams, because social problems are nullifying all Russian propaganda, and discontent is growing on the peninsula with a regime that has led to a significantly worse life than during the Ukrainian era. I watched streams by Russian bloggers and saw how people spoke openly and critically about the Russian authorities on the peninsula. This hasn’t happened before. These are boiling points, when things are so bad that people even stop being afraid.

Analyzing this situation, it seems to me that we are now at a moment when Russia is beginning to show signs of fragility. And in many places at once. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have halted the Russian offensive, and the front lines are cracking. One can have different views on the official statistics regarding the liberation of territories, but they clearly indicate that the Russians, at the very least, are not advancing.

Something is starting to happen in the Caucasus. Putin is urgently sending his first deputy chief of staff Sergei Kirienko there, which means he sees serious problems there.
Ukraine has significantly undermined Russia’s export capabilities in the global oil and fuel markets. And now there are local crises in the sacred Crimea and in the south as a whole.

In other words, it is no longer just one thing falling apart, but an entire system is tearing apart in many places, and there is a critical lack of resilience. This doesn’t mean Russia will collapse right now, but we haven’t seen a situation like this in the war since early 2023.

And this will not go unnoticed. They make no secret of the fact that they will cling to what they have stolen with all their might. That is why there is so much talk about nuclear weapons right now. Which will not help them in the slightest. That is why there is such terror against civilians. And I want to warn all my friends that a major combined strike on Kyiv is expected within 48 hours, involving nearly a thousand drones and several dozen missiles. Warn your loved ones and take care of yourselves.

Sergey Marchenko, Facebook

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Another Week, And Chaos Will Break Out In Crimea

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