"Lukashenko Is Reneging On All Agreements"

Arkady Moshes warned European politicians against harboring illusions about the dictator.

— People need to understand that there is simply no possibility today of resetting relations with Lukashenko in a way that would lead to internal liberalization, an end to repression, and at least a partial distancing from Russia, — says Arkady Moshes, an expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs .

On the air at “Euro Radio”, he discussed the “Stockholm syndrome” among some Belarusian democratic forces and experts, as well as the attempts by a new wave of EU diplomats to engage with Alexander Lukashenko.

— I find it absolutely incomprehensible how people who have observed the regime’s actions for decades—from close enough and as adults—saw the failure of previous attempts to restart European-Belarusian relations in 2008–2010 and 2015–2020, and saw how, without hesitation or the slightest doubt, Lukashenko reneges on any agreements with the European Union the moment threats to the regime arise, they still return to the idea of yet another attempt—essentially stepping into the same trap, but this time in an even more complex geopolitical situation.

I am not an expert in political psychology; this is something people with the appropriate education should explain. But I truly believe that this resembles Stockholm syndrome. Otherwise, I find it difficult to explain.

The logic of these people leads them to effectively say: Lukashenko himself could become an ally in the fight against the Lukashenko regime. I can’t understand that,” the expert says, throwing up his hands.

After all, diplomats have to write reports on the work they’ve done. That’s where the idea of starting talks with Lukashenko comes from.

— Europeans, who also need to take action and report to their diplomatic missions—those that are formally supposed to be in Minsk but are currently in Vilnius and cannot work in Belarus—are beginning to wonder: maybe we really should try to rethink things again?


In other words, unity within the European Union is already weakened today. But I don’t yet see any preparations for a real decision on a new reset of relations with Lukashenko.

In that case, some of the political prisoners will effectively have to give up hope of a quick release. New people will most likely be arrested so that Lukashenko gains new leverage in negotiations, Moshes asserts.

If Europe begins talks with Lukashenko, a threat to Ukraine will emerge, the expert warns.

— In a geopolitical sense, Ukraine will effectively be “surrendered,” because the aggression will go unpunished. Russia will also benefit because it will spend less on supporting Lukashenko and will once again be convinced that a tough stance and a lack of concessions eventually lead to the European Union itself seeking compromises.

People need to understand: there is simply no possibility today of restarting relations with Lukashenko in a way that would lead to internal liberalization, an end to repression, and at least a partial break from Russia, — says Arkady Moshes, an expert at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

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