“A Message Was Sent To Lukashenko: No One Is Irreplaceable”
2- 16.06.2026, 14:51
- 5,266
This time, Putin won’t come to the rescue.
Lukashenko began apologizing to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In an interview with Al Arabiya, the Belarusian leader stated that “he shouldn’t have spoken so harshly.” This refers to the dictator’s personal attacks against Zelenskyy.
Why did Lukashenko suddenly decide to apologize? The website Charter97.org discussed this with Ukrainian political scientist and professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Petro Oleshchuk:
— Lukashenko himself answered this question very clearly. He admitted that if Belarus goes to war with Ukraine, and we start striking it using the Russian model, things will go very badly for him. He admitted that there are indeed these 500 targets on Belarusian territory that are in the crosshairs.
Lukashenko is simply afraid. He understands perfectly well that the situation is not developing very well for him, first and foremost. This includes the prospect of potential support from Russia. I think he sees perfectly well how the situation is unfolding on the front lines for Russia, that Ukraine is specifically targeting Russian logistics.
The situation is not looking very good for Russia, despite all the victory reports and terrorist shelling of Ukraine. It is clear to everyone that the recent shelling of Kyiv was a purely terrorist act aimed at psychologically influencing Ukrainians. This is how any terrorist operates. But such terrorist acts are not a display of strength, but rather a shift toward outright terrorism. This is evidence that there are no other arguments left.
Ukraine is crippling Russian logistics and strategic sectors of the economy. All the Russian Federation can respond with is terrorism, which they then sell to their own citizens, saying, “Look, we are successfully defeating everyone.” Terrorism is, in essence, a kind of surrogate—a sign of impotence in key areas. I think Lukashenko has already seen how the oil refinery in Moscow was hit.
If oil refineries are already being hit in Moscow, then he has no chance. At the same time, he is well aware of the role he has played in this war since 2022. Lately, he’s been having fits of making yet another threat, brandishing “Oreshnik,” nuclear weapons, and so on. Naturally, he understands perfectly well that people remember all of this.
Lukashenko also perceived Ukraine’s increased engagement with the Belarusian opposition, if not as a black mark against him, then as a very unpleasant signal. He understands perfectly well that these are signals to him—no one is irreplaceable. It is unlikely that Putin can save him now, as he did in 2020. Whether he would even want to do so...
In fact, I didn’t see the entire interview with Lukashenko, only certain fragments. But even those allow me to conclude that this is simply a marvel of political tightrope walking.
An attempt to sit on several chairs at once: repeating propaganda talking points that please Russia, and apologizing to Zelenskyy, saying that they don’t want to go to war with Ukraine.
In short, there’s such a balancing act there, such attempts to somehow please everyone at the same time, that watching it, I realize he truly feels his situation isn’t looking good. Lukashenko is trying to sit on several chairs at once. On the one hand, he’s sending signals saying, “I’m one of you,” and on the other hand, he’s trying to send signals to Putin that “I’m one of you,” “I’m with you.” It’s a very surprising balancing act.
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