Forbes: Putin Has At Most Three Years Left
7- 30.06.2026, 10:48
- 7,188
Possible scenarios for change.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is in a critical situation, and he has no more than three years left in power. According to Forbes, scenarios for his downfall range from a swift assassination to a show trial, and the reasons could include new attacks by Ukraine, internal unrest, or China’s withdrawal of support.
At the same time, Forbes points out that, historically, regime change in Russia has already occurred twice in the last century due to military campaigns—World War I and the invasion of Afghanistan.
Possible Scenarios
As pressure on Putin intensifies, the elite surrounding him are contemplating their own fate. As Forbes explains, Russians will initially blame the elite surrounding Putin for all problems, assuming that they are shielding him from realizing the situation and taking corrective action. That is precisely why the elite will stage a mutiny even before a possible uprising in the Russian army—out of fear.
Putin has his own personal security units, including a number of law enforcement agencies such as the FSB, Interior Ministry troops, and the National Guard, as well as 30,000 direct security personnel, police, and so on, who have been at odds with one another for many years. A civil war between them is one possible scenario.
A swift assassination or a show trial
At the same time, the question of how Putin’s rule will end depends largely on what outcome is planned. A swift assassination of Putin and the ensuing power struggle would mean neutralizing the threat at an early stage, before his henchmen can react. But this rules out the possibility of staging a show trial and making him the scapegoat for all the atrocities of his rule, thereby exonerating others—which would allow the system and its elites to remain in power with minimal chaos.
This is the so-called Ceaușescu option. The Romanian dictator of the Cold War era was swiftly executed by the top military command, while his former elite continued to rule the country within the framework of a nominally democratic system.
The fact that such scenarios are possible is evidenced by the recent mysterious death of Sergei Ivanov, a longtime ally and friend of Putin’s, on June 26 at the age of 73. For years, Ivanov was also considered his likely successor.
“Incidents like this create problems for Putin. As potential rivals are quickly eliminated, others begin to feel threatened and take preemptive action against him,” writes Forbes.
Amid growing paranoia, anything could serve as a trigger, the publication notes:
“These could include larger-scale Ukrainian attacks on Moscow, food shortages, separatist uprisings in regions such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, or Chechnya, or a Ukrainian invasion of Crimea.”
China’s actions also remain a key factor. If Beijing decides that Putin’s weakening as a leader poses a threat to its own interests, it could provoke his downfall in various ways, such as by cutting off military aid or invading Siberia.
“Putin’s days are numbered. If this trend continues or worsens, he will likely be overthrown within three years,” the article emphasizes.
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