Nikolai Statkevich: This Will Come As A Shock To Russian Society

13.07.2026, 13:32
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By the end of the year, Ukraine will be on par with Russia in terms of ballistic capabilities.

Belarusian opposition leader and former political prisoner Nikolai Statkevich discusses the issue on his Telegram channel, discusses “arms race” between Russia and Ukraine:

— An arms race is underway between Russia and Ukraine, a significant part of which is a competition in the effectiveness of air attack capabilities (AAC). This competition primarily concerns drones and ballistic missiles.

Thanks to a flexible and efficient defense industry, unhindered access to the international market for components, and the ability to use the “Starlink” satellite network for guidance, Ukraine holds the advantage in the drone race. I believe that Ukraine’s advantage in long-range drone strikes will be further strengthened if, in line with the logic of AAS development, the Ukrainians inevitably come to apply American experience in breaching powerful air defense systems to these strikes.

For example, as was done near Hanoi during the Vietnam War. More specifically, this involves the functional echeloning of air strike formations and the deepening of specialization among their components.

In the ballistic missile race—where missiles have payloads and speeds an order of magnitude greater than those of drones—Russia holds a clear advantage thanks to its accumulated Soviet experience and preserved production base. But Ukraine has already begun testing its own ballistic missiles. Given the experience and capabilities of the Ukrainian defense industry, it can be predicted that by the end of the year, exchanges of ballistic missile strikes between the adversaries will be close to parity.

If Ukraine demonstrates its ballistic capabilities on too large a scale right from the start, it will come as a shock to Russian society, according to Nikolai Statkevich:

— Calls for the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine may grow among people who do not understand the real consequences of such a step, including for Russia. After all, even Ukraine alone, without its Western allies, is capable of a nuclear response—albeit an asymmetric one.

I am referring to the so-called “dirty bomb,” in which radioactive materials—of which Ukraine has plenty, thanks to its nuclear power plants—are dispersed over enemy territory using conventional munitions, such as aerial bombs or missiles. And using its own ballistic missiles to mount such a response to a Russian nuclear strike is a perfectly feasible task. Hotheads among Russian politicians and commentators need to understand that a nuclear strike—say, on Kyiv—could trigger radioactive contamination in response, for example, in Moscow or St. Petersburg.

I really like Kyiv, and I used to like St. Petersburg as well. I certainly wouldn’t want these cities to become uninhabitable.

All the more so, I certainly wouldn’t want a Russian nuclear strike to be launched from Belarus—for example, using Russian “Iskander” missiles with nuclear warheads from the Osipovichi area. And for Belarus to receive yet another nuclear strike in response—not just on the outskirts of the country, as in 1986, but, for example, on our capital. I believe that one Chernobyl was enough for us.

Playing with nuclear weapons is a deadly form of madness. Allowing a foreign state to play with its nuclear weapons on our soil is madness bordering on suicide—something that cannot be justified by any rational arguments.

We must not allow foreign nuclear weapons to be deployed on Belarusian soil. And certainly not allow them to be used from here against other countries. Belarus must remain neutral and nuclear-free. For Belarusians, this is already a matter of life and death.

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Nikolai Statkevich: This Will Come As A Shock To Russian Society

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