By Fall, Some Very Interesting Developments Are Expected To Unfold

Observers sometimes underestimate this factor.

It’s worth saying a few words about the significance of the blows dealt to Wildberries’ massive distribution centers in Russia.

This situation can easily be compared to blows to the Russian oil industry.

Oil production, transportation, refining, and export form the backbone of major Russian business. Yes, there’s Gazprom, and there are steel and fertilizer producers, but the backbone of the Russian economy is still the oil industry.

Well, Wildberries’ warehouses are roughly just as important. As it happens, they have become the logistical backbone of all Russian small and medium-sized businesses. Coffee shops order coffee and mugs there; auto repair shops order parts and supplies; beauty salons order nail polish, scissors, and shampoo.

For tens of millions of Russians who sell and buy all sorts of things, the Wildberries platform is their workplace, their main—and often only—source of income.

Observers sometimes underestimate this factor. (What impact could a hair salon or a laundromat have on Russia’s GDP or Putin’s ability to wage war?)

But in reality, it was small and medium-sized businesses—not Putin, not Nabiullina, and not even high oil prices—that saved the Russian economy in 2022, when it was on the brink of collapse. It was small business owners who instantly found ways to circumvent sanctions and supplied the market with everything it needed. They provided jobs for tens of millions of people and paid trillions in taxes.

And it was WB’s massive sorting warehouses that provided the logistics infrastructure enabling tens of thousands of small businesses to operate smoothly and efficiently.

In essence, these warehouses have become the heart of the Russian economy, pumping all the necessary nutrients to different parts of its body—to every organ and every cell.

And now the Ukrainian Armed Forces have struck right at this heart.

In terms of their long-term consequences, these strikes (which I hope will become regular) will be far more painful than strikes on oil refineries.

Without the World Bank, a colossal number of people will lose their jobs, their money, their future, and any prospects whatsoever. Those who used to fill restaurants and cheerfully claim that “the war has only made us richer” will find themselves in a situation where they have nothing to feed their children.

The instantaneous destruction of tens of thousands of small businesses is a very serious blow to economic, social, and political stability in the Russian Federation. By fall, some very interesting consequences should begin to unfold.

Ivan Yakovina, “Facebook”

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