The Ukrainian Armed Forces Are Undermining Trust Between Putin And The Russian People
3- 19.07.2026, 15:32
- 2,924
The war is becoming increasingly palpable in the regions.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure and the deteriorating economic situation are increasingly undermining the informal “social contract” between the Kremlin and the Russian population, under which the government ensured stability and prosperity in exchange for restrictions on political freedoms. This is stated in an article published by the French newspaper Le Monde.
The authors of the article note that Ukraine’s recent attacks on oil refineries have triggered the most severe fuel crisis in Russia in decades. Of particular significance was the strike by Ukrainian drones on the Omsk Oil Refinery on July 6. Following the attack, Russia’s largest oil refinery was forced to suspend operations.
As a result, the war is becoming increasingly felt in regions that were previously considered beyond the reach of hostilities, the journalists note. Due to attacks on refineries, fuel depots, and tankers across Russia, long lines have formed at gas stations, fuel prices are rising, and the black market is gaining momentum. At the same time, Russian authorities have not yet been able to quickly stabilize the situation.
“Attacks on major oil refineries, including facilities in Omsk and Yaroslavl, have exposed a critical vulnerability—internal logistics,” says Nikolai Kulbaka, an economist at the European Humanities University .
According to him, it is practically impossible to quickly shift shipments to rail, and fuel imports—particularly from India—cannot resolve the problem promptly.
The publication also highlights the psychological factor. Andrei Yakovlev, a researcher at the Free University of Berlin, believes that the authorities are concealing the true scale of the attacks while simultaneously keeping gasoline prices low, which is causing the population to stockpile fuel. As a result, the shortage is only getting worse.
In addition to the fuel crisis, the authors describe a general deterioration in the state of the Russian economy. Heli Simola , a leading economist at the Bank of Finland’s Institute for Developing Economies , notes that economic growth has slowed this year, while the budget deficit has increased significantly. At the same time, in her assessment, an immediate economic or financial crisis seems unlikely.
“Russia can still finance and sustain its operations in Ukraine, although it will have to make increasingly difficult decisions,” the analyst says.
The article also mentions a report by European intelligence agencies that warns of the risks of a banking crisis in Russia due to the accumulation of non-performing loans, mass bankruptcies among small and medium-sized businesses, and banks’ heavy reliance on a few large borrowers. According to experts, the new package of EU sanctions, which is being prepared in July and will be directed primarily against Russian banks and cryptocurrency networks, could further intensify financial pressure on Russia.
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