Lukashenko Is Losing A Long-Standing Battle
- 28.08.2026, 9:35
- 2,028
Important questions remain unanswered.
At a meeting on socio-economic development, Alexander Lukashenko spoke at length about how the farmers—who, on his orders, had been sent to serve in the military negligent farmers—who, on his orders, were sent to the army—are digging dugouts and unquestioningly following their commanders’ orders.
At the same time, important questions remain unanswered.
First, on what grounds were civilian workers hastily reclassified as military personnel? We understand that the country has been operating under a “sometimes the law doesn’t apply” regime for more than a year. And yet, where is the relevant decree, order, or resolution of the Council of Ministers?
Where are the amendments to the Labor Code, which does not provide for such actions?
Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin is keen to emphasize that he is acting in accordance with Lukashenko’s order. But since when does a verbal order have the legal force to draft a tractor operator who has committed an offense into the army?
Second, I would like to hear about the specific goal this initiative is pursuing. Officials and military leaders point to the ruler. But even he does not say outright what he hopes to achieve with this questionable operation to create penal battalions for farmers.
And again, the questions arise: if this is a disciplinary measure, in which code can one find a provision for punishment in the form of conscription for refusing to work during the harvest?
Who will be held responsible for the penalized villagers in the event of injuries or accidents—Minister Khrenin, the executive committee chairpersons who approve the lists of penalized workers, or the person who came up with the idea?
There are no answers, but here’s what we do know: based on the whim of a single person and in the absence of any legal grounds, workers with less-than-spotless reputations are being sent to serve on the border, weapons in hand.
So what’s the reason?
Slackers, corrupt officials, and troublemakers are everywhere, but so far there have been no reports of heavy industry workers or retail employees being sent to the border with Ukraine.
Belarusians have seen it all under Lukashenko. There have been threats to impose serf-like conditions on workers at wood-processing plants, as well as mandatory labor assignments. But punishment by the army for disrupting the harvest—and right in the middle of it—is something entirely new.
Forcing an entire economic sector into labor in such an extravagant manner, bypassing even the most basic legal norms, suggests a very serious problem—one that they are desperately trying to put out in a rush.
The existence of this problem is also evidenced by the telling figure cited by Lukashenko.
“At first, I thought there might be thousands of them”
A telling moment in this story. At a meeting, the president stated that about 500 people from across the country had been mobilized. He himself, however, said he thought there might be thousands.
Where does this discrepancy come from? In his estimates, Lukashenko relies on figures reported to him by security officials. And those figures do indeed refer to thousands.
Some figures from the end of 2025:
9,200 people, including 52 district executive committee chairpersons and their deputies responsible for agricultural issues, were held accountable in various ways.
299 criminal cases were initiated for concealing the death of 10,500 head of cattle.
1,024 economic crimes were committed in the agro-industrial sector.
Approximately 3,000 instances of employees being found intoxicated at their workplaces, including 749 security guards.
130 instances of intoxicated drivers operating machinery at agribusiness enterprises.
819 instances of unjustified absences from work.
Judging by recent data, the situation this year is not much better. For example, here are the figures for the Brest Region, where 161 violations and 32 crimes have been identified since the start of the harvest season.
When asked why 500 and not thousands, the head of the Grodno Region Yuri Karaev replied while reporting on the detection of several dozen “offenders”: “We gathered them from across the region (…) Not too many—just enough so that our harvest isn’t affected.”
This is the same Karaev who speaks openly about the labor shortage in rural areas and advocates for bringing in migrant workers.
500, not thousands—that is likely the response from officials who are simultaneously being pressured to reach the coveted target of 11.5 million metric tons of grain amid a severe labor shortage. And something tells me that by the next harvest, there won’t be any more of these workers—quite the opposite.
The system needs to change, but…
Lukashenko himself is beginning to realize that the system he has built—one that extracts raw materials from the countryside in exchange for shamefully low wages, red flags at the village council, and the “Dozhinki” festival—is failing.
The state media can talk as much as it wants about health centers for calves, hands that smell of bread, and drones pollinating crops, but people are fleeing the countryside, where their labor has been transformed from a simple means of earning money into a cynical social competition.
The system needs fundamental changes, as eloquently demonstrated by the attempt to force people to work under the threat of being drafted into the army. But instead, the ruler could come up with nothing better than to make ordinary workers the scapegoats.
And this is yet another reason not to be misled by Lukashenko’s increasingly frequent overtures toward private agricultural producers. As long as he’s at the helm, this endless “battle for the harvest” will continue.
Sergei Vasilevsky, “Solidarnast”
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