ISW: What Is Putin Up To?
The Kremlin is stepping up its provocations near NATO countries' airspace.
Moscow is systematically stepping up its attacks on Ukraine’s border infrastructure and intensifying provocations involving drones near the airspace of NATO countries. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to analysts, the Kremlin is thus attempting to exert psychological pressure on the Alliance and weaken its willingness to support Ukraine.
The basis for these conclusions was attack on September 13 on a train locomotive near the “Yagodin” border crossing on the border with Poland. According to available information, European officials who had participated in the YES conference were returning from Kyiv via this very checkpoint that day.
As noted by the ISW, the train’s passengers included Germany’s foreign policy advisor Günter Sautter, Bundestag member Robin Wagener, and former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. “Ukrzaliznytsia” managed to evacuate the train about 15 minutes before the strike—shortly after which the drone struck the locomotive.
The gathered evidence “fully confirms” the likelihood that the attack was directed specifically against European officials who were traveling from Ukraine at the time, analysts write.
“Russia is increasingly striking Ukrainian border crossings and stepping up drone incursions into European airspace to intimidate NATO and force the Alliance to abandon its support for Ukraine,” the report states.
At the same time, experts noted that the incident in Iagodina is not an isolated one: since August 2026, Russian forces have already struck four border crossings between Ukraine and Moldova. Moreover, on September 8, an enemy UAV nearly struck President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plane while it was preparing to depart from Chișinău.
The Institute for the Study of War emphasizes the need to revise NATO’s airspace defense concept. In particular, it calls for considering the possibility of shooting down Russian targets while they are still over Ukrainian territory, before they approach NATO’s borders, as well as accelerating the strengthening of Ukraine’s air defense.
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