Will Ukraine Close Its Airspace To Belarus As Well?

"Belavia" may not survive such a turn of events.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned airlines that it would be best not to fly to Russia. No one doubts that Ukraine has sufficient technical capabilities to completely close the airspace at least over the European part of Russia. So it seems that Belarusians may soon be left without any airspace at all. And Belavia’s planes may be grounded indefinitely for preventive maintenance.

“Today we want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, and everyone who still uses key Russian airports: Russian airspace is becoming completely dangerous,” Zelenskyy said. “There is no place for civil aviation among drones.”

Putin called Zelenskyy’s remarks a call for state terrorism. At the same time, he ordered intensified strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Putin refused to negotiate with Ukraine.

So the outlook for Russian airspace looks grim. Because to close it off, there’s no need to bomb airports. It’s enough for Ukrainian combat drones to fly near these airports.

“The skies over Russia are now for drones—not for civil aviation,” Zelenskyy said.

Airlines around the world will somehow survive the closure of Russian airspace. But for “Belavia”—that’s not a given. All of Belarus’s neighbors have closed their airspace to Belarusian aircraft since 2021, when Alexander Lukashenko decided to engage in air piracy. Since then, Russia has remained the only accessible air route. Every year, 1.5 to 2 million Belarusians fly to or through Russia. Between 300,000 and 500,000 use Russia as a transit country.

It’s not exactly a comfortable route. Flight delays and the need to take huge detours due to drone attacks on these routes have become commonplace. Just a week ago, a flight from Minsk to Kutaisi had to fly through Kazakhstan and refuel. Instead of four hours, the flight lasted eight. But if Ukraine carries out its threat, even such flights will be nothing more than a nostalgic memory.

And the most frustrating thing is that life was just starting to get back on track for “Belavia.” The Americans lifted their restrictions, and passenger traffic began to grow for the first time compared to pre-sanction levels. The company launched or resumed 15 new flights and operates 18 flights to various cities in Russia. But now, instead of Tel Aviv or Moscow, Belarusian Boeings will only be able to fly to Gomel or Brest.

However, Ukraine’s airspace has been closed to civilian aviation since February 24, 2022. Now the Belarusians, too, are set to experience firsthand some of the “charms” of the “special military operation” launched by Lukashenko’s main ally.

Andrei Bronishevsky, planbmedia.io

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