Garry Kasparov: I Do Not Consider The Breakup Of Russia A Threat

A lot depends on the scenario of the regime's collapse.

World chess champion and one of the leaders of the Russian opposition Garry Kasparov said in an interview Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty how he envisions Ukraine’s victory:

— It means putting an end to Putin’s ability to wage war. It must end with the Ukrainian flag flying in Sevastopol. Ukraine must receive the necessary support until Putin’s resources for continuing the war are exhausted.
I’m not a military expert, but judging by what I read and analyze, Putin’s resources for continuing a full-scale war aren’t infinite either. There are two scenarios: either Ukraine cannot hold out and collapses under the attacks on its civilian population, or Ukraine holds out, and then [Putin’s] regime will collapse. We must do everything possible to bring about the regime’s collapse.

This does not mean that things will suddenly be fine in Russia the very next day. But the collapse of a regime always opens a window of opportunity. Failed wars in Russian history have led to major changes. The question is how to take advantage of that window of opportunity.

— How do you see Russia after Putin? Is the country’s disintegration possible?

— Much depends on the scenario of the regime’s collapse. After a dictator steps down, a power struggle among the elites usually begins, various centers of influence emerge, and attempts to reach agreements with Ukraine, the U.S., and Europe are to be expected. Defeat in the war could strengthen centrifugal forces. I think that a future free Russia will likely have different geographical borders.

I do not consider the collapse of the empire a threat. Residents of Tatarstan or the North Caucasus may have a different point of view. It is important that the changes do not spiral out of control and that there remains room for cooperation among the regions. The territories east of Novosibirsk face a difficult choice: independence may turn out to be an illusion, followed by dependence on China. In the long run, Russia’s choice is to become a Chinese province or to try to reach an agreement with Europe and join the free world.

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