Lukashenko Started Fussing

Valery Karbalevich
28.10.2026, 14:17
2,114

All of these factors are causing concern in Minsk.

The previous visit by U.S. President’s Special Representative John Cole to Minsk on September 15 did not live up to the expectations of many. It appears that both sides were dissatisfied with the results. They agreed that time is needed to resolve the outstanding issues.

Cole stated that he plans to visit Minsk again “in about a month,” hoping to secure the release of “hundreds more prisoners.” Alexander Lukashenko also spoke of the same timeframe for addressing shortcomings in Belarusian-American relations.

Both sides were very optimistic, especially following U.S. President Donald Trump’s September 22 statement regarding the possibility of purchasing Belarusian potash fertilizers at a more favorable price than that offered by Canada. The first ship carrying Belarusian potash fertilizers was scheduled to arrive in the U.S. on October 14.

However, more than a month has passed, and Cole’s new visit to Minsk has yet to take place. It is unclear when it will happen. After all, as evident from the meeting with Lukashenko on October 22, the level of interest in deepening the bilateral dialogue varies. Official Minsk needs this much more.

Who is more interested in the negotiation process?

“For our part, we are faithfully fulfilling what we promised the Americans. At that time, we told the delegation that we would very much like the Americans to also fulfill the agreements 100 percent in this regard,” Lukashenko noted at the aforementioned meeting.

Belarus’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Valentin Rybakov, who is leading the negotiations with the Americans, stated:

“All of the issues mentioned are being resolved. But only one has been fully resolved—the personal sanctions against the head of ‘Belaruskali’ have been lifted. The remaining issues are in the process of being resolved. This may take some time, as the issues are complex.”

As indicated by Rybakov’s comments, the issue of debt repayment for potash fertilizers remains unresolved—the funds are frozen at Citibank. Despite Washington’s efforts, the issue of resuming the transit of Belarusian potash fertilizers through the ports of the Baltic states remains unresolved. Lithuania, in particular, refuses to open the Port of Klaipėda to Belarusian fertilizers while EU sanctions remain in effect.

Washington is setting conditions for the resumption of operations at its embassy in Minsk. At the same time, it is emphasizing the release of political prisoners, which does not sit well with the Belarusian leadership.

Apparently, this uncertain situation is causing some frustration, irritation, and impatience on the Belarusian side. There is a risk that U.S. interest in the negotiation process with Belarus could decline significantly, and all of Minsk’s hopes for assistance in resolving many foreign policy issues will prove futile.

The specter of a “new Yalta”

Trump’s statements about the possibility of purchasing cheaper Belarusian potash fertilizers may be linked not only to trade disputes with Canada but also to domestic political calculations ahead of the midterm congressional elections. But the elections are just a week away. And this could significantly reduce interest in Belarusian potash.

Cooperation between the U.S. and Russia has now intensified. And the mediator between Washington and Moscow—a role in which the U.S. administration saw Lukashenko—is no longer needed.

Lukashenko’s role as a mediator may become less relevant, especially as a possible meeting between the leaders of the U.S., Russia, and China is being discussed. According to The Washington Post, this initiative was put forward by Vladimir Putin. Among the possible topics for discussion is the war in Ukraine. However, there are no concrete agreements yet regarding the summit.

The specter of a “new Yalta”—where the leaders of major powers divide spheres of influence around the world—diminishes the role of medium-sized countries such as Belarus. The overall international atmosphere ahead of the likely summit in Shenzhen, China, is not very conducive to accelerating Belarusian-American negotiations.

The Role of Potash in Belarus-U.S. Relations

Another interesting story. On October 10, The New York Times, citing informed sources, reported that Trump’s special envoys Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner had offered Moscow a number of economic concessions, including facilitating the export of Belarusian potash, in exchange for a limited ceasefire in Ukraine. If this information is accurate, it follows that Washington views Belarus and Russia as a single entity, and the Americans are willing to make concessions to Belarus in order to please Russia. This once again raises the question of Belarus’s status as a sovereign state.

In addition, Putin stated during a meeting with Whitcoff that Russia could supply large volumes of fertilizer to the U.S. market. It should be noted that Russia already exports large quantities of nitrogen, phosphorus, potash, and mixed mineral fertilizers to the U.S. Nearly one million metric tons of potash were shipped in fiscal year 2026 alone.

By way of comparison: the ship that delivered Belarusian potash to the U.S. port of New Orleans carried only about 30,000 metric tons. Here, too, Belarus was overshadowed by Russia.

Meanwhile, the activities of the “Peace Council” established by Trump have somehow quieted down. And Lukashenko had hoped to meet with the U.S. president at the organization’s summit.

In addition, John Cole is currently awaiting a new position. Trump has appointed him as the U.S. President’s Special Representative for Hostage Affairs with the rank of ambassador. Unlike his mission in Belarus, this new position requires confirmation by the U.S. Senate. That takes time and effort. Will Cole have enough energy and time to travel to Minsk?

Lukashenko is getting restless

All these factors are causing concern in Minsk. That is why it is no coincidence that Lukashenko is acting so frantically. He is trying to show Washington that he is interested in continuing the negotiations. On July 28, the Belarusian leader pointedly publicized his meeting with Rybakov, the very same official who is leading the negotiations with John Cole.

On October 22, he is convening a full meeting of high-ranking officials to discuss the progress of negotiations with the U.S. This also demonstrates his persistent interest.

At the same time, Belarus is loading a second ship to deliver potash fertilizers to the U.S., Rybakov stated. As a reminder: just recently, Lukashenko stated that all of Belarus’s potash had long been chartered out, that there were no surplus fertilizers, and that therefore, if the U.S. needed it so badly, it should negotiate with Minsk. And now it turns out that potash has been found.

Lukashenko also proposed that the U.S. build a nitrogen fertilizer plant as part of a joint venture with Russia.

The presence at the October 22 meeting not only of KGB Chairman Ivan Tertel—which is to be expected—but also of Prosecutor General Dmitry Gora is also telling. These same individuals are “responsible” for political prisoners. Their participation can also be seen as a signal to Washington of their willingness to discuss the further release of political prisoners. And as an attempt to compete in the eyes of Trump—who is a great “humanist”—to see who is more so: him or Putin.

Valery Karbalevich, “Radio Svaboda”

PATREON Support the website

Write your comment