Russia Is On The Brink Of Collapse

Crimea was the first warning sign.

Restrictions on fuel sales in certain regions of Russia are not indicative of local disruptions, but rather of the onset of more profound problems in the Russian oil refining industry.

This was stated in an interview with "Glavred"Mikhail Gonchar, president of the "Strategy XXI" Center for Global Studies and an expert on international energy relations and security.

“This is a sign, but nothing more at this point. It is too early to speak of a full-scale fuel crisis. Undoubtedly, what is currently happening with fuel in Crimea is a direct consequence of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ actions to logistically isolate the peninsula in all directions. The current problems in the Russian fuel market as a whole are the cumulative effect and consequence of our systematic actions since early 2026, the intensity of which is increasing. While there were five or six attacks on refineries in January and February, there were 16 in May. “Therefore, we are seeing signs of a crisis that first became noticeable in the occupied territories of Ukraine but are already beginning to affect various regions of Russia,” he noted.

Gonchar noted that it is still too early to speak of a full-scale fuel crisis in Russia, as major oil companies continue to use their own fuel reserves, and the strategic state reserve has not yet been tapped. According to him, various operators have reserves sufficient for two weeks to a month, and it is these reserves that are currently preventing the crisis from manifesting in the retail petroleum products market.

The expert also emphasized that if Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries in June maintain their current intensity, the situation on the Russian fuel market will deteriorate significantly as early as July.

In his view, the crisis will spread to the southern regions of the country, and in the largest urban agglomerations, particularly in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the current signs of potential restrictions could escalate into full-blown fuel supply problems.

“The bans introduced in Russia are symptomatic: on gasoline exports starting April 1, and on jet fuel exports starting June 1. This indicates serious problems in Russia’s oil refining industry. Bringing this situation to a critical level is the task of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and the strikes being carried out against oil refining facilities and storage facilities for finished petroleum products,” he concluded.

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