A Turning Point
2- 17.06.2026, 10:34
- 3,572
Ukrainian drones are really hurting Russia.
Ukraine has significantly expanded its use of medium-range drones, striking Russian logistics and supply infrastructure. According to military analysts, this has become one of the key factors changing the dynamics of the war and creating serious problems for the Russian army, writes The New York Times.
After saturating the front lines with millions of drones, Ukraine has moved on to deeper operations—first targeting Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure, and now key logistics routes.
Kyiv has focused on the so-called “golden mean”—roads and railways located more than 150 km from the front lines that supply Russian troops. The Ukrainian side describes these actions as a “logistical blockade.”
Retired Australian General Mick Ryan emphasized that this particular phase of the war is the most devastating for Russia:
“This is what’s really hurting the Russians.”
According to him, coordinated strikes are hindering Russia’s ability to accelerate the pace of its offensive.
The Scale of Drone Production in Ukraine
Ukrainian officials report that the country has sharply increased its production of drones. According to their data, Ukraine is capable of carrying out more than 5,000 medium- and long-range strikes each month.
Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that in May, the number of strikes at a distance of more than 50 km from the front line doubled compared to April.
The Ukrainian analytical group DeepState reports that May was the first month since 2023 in which Russia suffered net territorial losses.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukraine recaptured nearly 60 square kilometers more in May than it lost.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes in its assessment that such strikes are helping to shift the conflict into a new phase and could create a “unique and time-limited opportunity” for Ukrainian offensive operations.
A “Window of Opportunity” for Ukraine
Analysts warn that Ukraine has limited time to capitalize on this advantage. Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute stated that the war has reached a turning point and could create conditions to pressure Russia into a ceasefire.
Ukrainian commanders also emphasize the need for swift action. The commander of a drone unit, whose call sign is Kit, said: “The main idea is for Russia to truly feel the war, to understand that distance does not guarantee safety.”
The Technological Component of the Campaign
Ukrainian forces are using upgraded drones with improved engines, batteries, Starlink communication systems, and artificial intelligence components.
Such strikes are aimed primarily at unarmored trucks and train convoys, leading to:
fuel shortages in Russian units;
difficulties in troop rotation;
reduced activity on the front lines.
Ukraine has sharply increased its own weapons production. In 2024, one company was awarded a contract for 112 attack drones. The latest contract is for 25,000 medium- and long-range drones.
European countries have allocated $1.63 billion for drone production in Ukraine. In addition, the government is allocating more than $113 million to develop the “logistical blockade” program.
The campaign is yielding the greatest results in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces claim to have established control over sections of logistics routes leading to Crimea, including Russia’s so-called land bridge.
The only alternative route remains the Kerch Bridge, which has already been attacked on multiple occasions.
Analysts agree that Ukraine has entered a new phase of the war, in which low-cost, mass-produced drones play a key role, capable of disrupting Russian logistics deep behind enemy lines.
According to ISW estimates, this creates a “unique opportunity” to change the nature of hostilities and potentially turn the tide on the front lines.
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