David Marples: "Lukashenka exhausts possibilities"

A well-known Canadian political analyst believes that the Belarusian leader is slowly but surely is losing freedom of manoeuvre in relations with Russia.

In its new article on Belarus published at the website of Eurasia Daily Monitor, Marples considers and analyses the recent events related to the visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to Brest and Lukashenka's voyage to Venezuela which took place at the same moment, "Radio Svaboda" informs.

Marples reminds that Lukashenka needs to enlist support of the Kremlin in orde rto be re-elected for the 4th term. The cost of this support, according to Marples, could be an agreement to have a single currency wit Russia and to enter the customs union with Russia and Kazakhstan on Russia's terms.

Marples shares doubts of many Russian and Belarusian observers whi see the agreement on Venezuelan oil deliveries to Belarus as first of all an element of pressure o Russia, for Russia to give oil without duties, and not an economic deal which in reality would decrease Minsk's energy dependence on Moscow.

Marples also recalls that right after the agreement with Venezuela on oil Putin offered to lift export duties for Russian oil for Belarus, but on the condition that Belarus would create a single economic space with Russia. As said by Marples, Belarus would have to pay for duty-free oil by recognition of Abkhasia and South Ossetia's independence.

According to Canadian expert, the economic situation is not in favour of Belarus. In order to maintain financial stability, Belarus has to take loans all the time. Besides, te value of the Belarusian ruble is decreasing all the time, and this increases the cost of buying resources abroad for the country.

Lukashenka, as Marples believes, has also deteriorated his position in the world by damaging relations with Brussels and Washington by the recent crackdown on activists of the unreistered Union of Poles in Belarus.

The Belarusian ruler is forced to look for friends in Latin America and China, but in the long run his relations with Russia are still to stay the key ones. Even if Putin was los after Lukashenka's recent deeds, he is able to afford putting up with that. His former ally is gradually exhausting possibilities to avoide being drawn into Russian economic pound, the Canadian expert David Marples says.