Black Week for Lukashenka: Four Failures in a Row

A chronology of the "downed pilot" dive.

From Monday 15 November to Monday 22 November, there were several significant events with a minus for Lukashenka.

The udf website has restored the chronology.

Communication with Merkel: from euphoria to "rip-off"

Lukashenka's press service reported on November 15 that German acting Chancellor Angela Merkel had a telephone conversation with him that lasted 50 minutes.

Merkel and Lukashenka spoke for a second time on November 17. State propaganda celebrated a victory. They say the West is preparing to make a deal with the Belarusian leader and recognize his legitimacy.

But neither of these things happened. On 22 November, Lukashenka noted with disappointment:

"I am waiting for the EU to answer the question about the two thousand refugees. We have about two thousand refugees in this camp. I asked them (European Union and Germany, in particular) to take them away. Merkel promised me they would look into this problem at the European Union level. So they don't even look into it. And even what she promised me (it was decided at the EU level) is contacts. They do not even contact".

The migrant crisis: Poland counterattacks

Lukashenka failed. The Belarusian authorities seem to have driven themselves into a deadlock and are on the verge of complete failure.

Last week, after migrants stormed the border and threw stones, Polish authorities gave an ultimatum to official Minsk. They demanded to stabilize the situation on the border by November 21. Otherwise, rail traffic will be closed.

At the moment, we can say that it has worked. The migrants have been sent to the logistics centre. The Belarusian authorities seem to be at a loss and do not know what to do next.

Putin's attack

While Lukashenka was fully focused on the western front, a blow came from the East. At a Foreign Ministry board meeting held on 18 November, Vladimir Putin suddenly urged the Belarusian authorities to engage in dialogue with the opposition.

"Yes, we know and understand that the situation in Belarus, although it has calmed down, there are problems. We are well aware of it. And, of course, we call for dialogue between the authorities and the opposition," Putin said.

Analysts agree the Russian president, thus, reminded Lukashenka of the need to carry out the promised constitutional reform and develop a mechanism for the transit of power.

The Belarusian leader did not hide the fact that he was hurt by these words. The next day in the interview to BBC, he lunged at the president of Russia:

"I can draw a parallel. As soon as Putin and Navalny sit down to negotiate, I will immediately start negotiating with Svetlana (Tikhanovskaya)".

Lukashenka might have already regretted his words. Now Putin's reaction is expected.

Confessions during an interview with BBC

The published video concludes the Belarusian leader was very nervous when interviewed by Steven Rosenberg on November 19. One can explain it with a telephone conversation with Putin before the interview.

As a result, the Belarusian leader admitted beatings of detainees on Okrestina and deliberate blind eye to the actions of migrants. In a short BBC story, he appeared in a poor light.

What did Lukashenka hope to achieve with his harsh statements? The question remains unanswered. In the end, Rosenberg was using Lukashenka rather than the latter.