Statkevich Suggested That Lukashenko Not Shoot Down Ukrainian Drones

The Belarusian "Polonez" missiles and the Russian "Iskander" missiles will be used up very quickly.

Belarusian opposition leader and former political prisoner Nikolai Statkevich commented on his Telegram channel, commented on the demand made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to dismantle relay stations in Belarus within a week that help Russia adjust drone strikes:

— I received the following question from a former colleague in the People’s Community: “Good afternoon! I’m passing along a question that several people would like to ask: What is your position on Zelenskyy’s ultimatum—the demand to remove Russian relay stations used to guide drones within a week?”

My stance is obvious—who in Belarus would like it if our country were being bombarded by drones and missiles?

But the issue isn’t about my stance; it’s about preventing the conflict from escalating, because, by all accounts, Ukraine will launch an airstrike on these relay stations if they aren’t removed.

Relay stations for guiding drones are a crucial part of Russia’s airstrike infrastructure, since Russia currently cannot use Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system to guide drones. The deployment of Russian relay stations on Belarusian territory constitutes direct and obvious complicity in Russian airstrikes.

It is highly likely that these very repeaters were used in the strikes on Kyiv and the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. The distance from the Belarusian border to Kyiv—especially when using the towers mentioned by Zelenskyy—makes this possible. Therefore, it is vitally important for Ukraine to neutralize such repeaters.

In doing so, Kyiv can invoke international law and the exercise of its legitimate right to self-defense. It can also highlight Belarus’s role in Russia’s 2022 “blitzkrieg.”

I do not think Moscow will allow its local “sovereign” to remove its relay stations or even move them farther from the Ukrainian border. Especially since Russia has an interest in dragging Belarus into the war on its side.

Therefore, a strike against the relay stations is highly likely.

But the main thing now is that the Ukrainian strike be limited to these relay stations alone and not lead to an escalation of the conflict or the involvement of our country in the war.

But the main thing now is for the Ukrainian strike to be limited solely to these repeaters and not lead to an escalation of the conflict or drag our country into the war.

The Belarusian regime will have to respond to this strike in some way, if it happens. It will be difficult to limit the response to diplomatic demarches alone, because such a response will provoke a negative reaction from a disappointed Kremlin and its propaganda machine. But this reaction can be weathered.

If, however, the response is to strike back, it must be taken into account that most of the border between Ukraine and Belarus runs through the Polessye marshes, which greatly complicates ground combat operations. As a result, the conflict will inevitably escalate into an exchange of missile and drone strikes, either immediately or after some time.

A few dozen Belarusian “Polonez” and Russian “Iskander” missiles will be exhausted very quickly. Even if Moscow were to contribute a few hundred more “Shahed” (or “Geran”) drones, such an exchange of strikes would still very quickly shift to a phase of unilateral strikes by Ukraine, since its advantage—even compared to Russia—in the mass production and high-precision deployment of medium- and long-range drones is becoming increasingly evident. And there’s no point even talking about Belarus.

I’m not even referring to the risk to the regime posed by arming a large number of adult Belarusians in the event of a ground conflict.

But in the event of massive airstrikes by Ukraine, there will be real threats not only to Belarusian industry and infrastructure, but also to all citizens of our country. It is better to avoid such threats.

What should the Belarusian authorities do to prevent a negative turn of events?
Of course, they could reach out to Kyiv, make some promises, and try to buy time. But then there is a possibility of a surprise strike, which increases the risk of civilian casualties.

I think that, in any case, it is necessary to establish a system for alerting the population to an air threat in the area stretching from the Ukrainian border to these relay stations, and to require local authorities and residents of villages in this zone to equip bomb shelters — at least in the basements of apartment buildings or even in their own cellars.

Furthermore, there is no point in trying to shoot down Ukrainian drones and missiles using Belarusian air defense systems. There are few anti-aircraft missiles, they are expensive, and most importantly—why shoot down something that is flying toward Russian relay stations? Just so that the wreckage of Ukrainian drones or Belarusian anti-aircraft missiles falls on the heads of civilians?

It’s also not worth using Belarusian electronic warfare systems—there’s no way to know where a missile or drone, once knocked off course, will end up.

In short, if Putin refuses to remove his relay stations, Zelenskyy will take them down. The Belarusian authorities might even tell the latter: “Take them down; we won’t stand in your way. Just don’t keep attacking.”

It’s like that joke: “What the heck—go ahead and hit us!”
For Belarusians right now, the main thing is to protect their fellow citizens and not let our country get dragged even deeper into someone else’s war.

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